Jonah Tong over 3.5 strikeoutsV
Sep 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5700
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Tong's 2026 K rate is 8.6 K/9 (20K in 21.0 IP). His last three outings: 6K in 6.0 IP (Sep 14 vs BAL), 7K in 5.0 IP (Sep 7 vs MIA), and 4K in a shortened 3.1 IP start (Jun 2). In his two full starts of recent vintage he cleared 3.5 with room to spare. Coming off 6 days of extended rest, his stuff should be fresh. PHI is a credible strikeout team (9.83 K/9 allowed on season). The 3.5 line is modest and the over at -175 reflects a market that agrees he's likely to get there.
Jonah Tong under 5.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 14, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7500
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Tong has 14 K in 15.0 IP across 3 starts in 2026 (8.40 K/9), but his per-start K counts are 7, 4, 1 — averaging 4.0 Ks per outing. Two of three starts produced ≤4 Ks, well below the 5.5 line. The outs market (14.5 outs Over -159) suggests the market expects roughly 5 innings, and at 8.40 K/9 over 5 IP he projects to ~4.7 Ks. Short-outing history (3.1 IP and 3.2 IP in two of three starts) adds additional cap risk. Market prices Under at -133 (57.1% implied), aligning with the statistical lean.
Jonah Tong under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 7, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9100
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Tong has logged only 10.0 IP in 2026 across three starts, averaging 3.3 IP per outing. His 7 K in 10 IP works out to a 6.3 K/9 but that production is compressed into very short outings — in his longest 2026 start (3.2 IP) he managed just 1 K. Career vs MIA (May 22 2026): 3.0 IP, 2 K. Getting to 5 Ks requires both length and efficiency he has not demonstrated this season. The outs market pricing (over 14.5 outs at -169) reflects 4.8+ IP expectation — even in that scenario at his current pace he projects to ~3.4 Ks. Heavy under.
