Jonathan Aranda

BvP 2026 (small sample — 3 PA): Aranda is 0-for-3 with 0.000 OPS against Misiorowski in their only 2026 matchup. Season .274 AVG is decent but Misiorowski's 1.87 ERA and elite swing-and-miss profile makes suppressing contact his baseline. Aranda profiles as a contact hitter without elite power, giving Misiorowski a favorable matchup. Under at +110 offers positive money on a bet backed by their limited but directionally consistent history. Note: 3 PA sample — use as supporting context alongside Misiorowski's overall dominance.

Aranda slashes .274/.358/.434 with 22 HR in 668 PA, posting a .837 OPS vs RHP — a favorable split against CLE's likely right-handed options. Facing Bibee (4.36 ERA) or an exhausted Guardians bullpen cycling through depth pieces, Aranda needs only an extra-base hit or two singles to clear 1.5 total bases. As a middle-of-order bat in a TB lineup that is projected to score 3.5 runs, his opportunities are well-positioned. At +128 (43.9% implied), the market modestly undervalues a .434 SLG bat in a closeout game where TB's lineup is expected to do most of the scoring damage.

Aranda is 0-for-4 with 0.000 OPS against Fried in 2026. Career line across 13 PA: .091 AVG, 0.518 OPS with 1 HR as his only extra-base hit. The 2026 trend is decisively negative — each return to this matchup has gone badly. Fried's 2.73 ERA and 0.99 first-inning WHIP speaks to elite command. With Fried on 15 days rest and sharp in recent starts (6K vs BOS, 6K vs MIN), Aranda faces a pitcher who has his number in their most current encounters.