Jonathan Aranda

Aranda is 0-for-4 with 0.000 OPS against Fried in 2026. Career line across 13 PA: .091 AVG, 0.518 OPS with 1 HR as his only extra-base hit. The 2026 trend is decisively negative — each return to this matchup has gone badly. Fried's 2.73 ERA and 0.99 first-inning WHIP speaks to elite command. With Fried on 15 days rest and sharp in recent starts (6K vs BOS, 6K vs MIN), Aranda faces a pitcher who has his number in their most current encounters.

Aranda posted 0.000 OPS across 6 PA vs Schlittler in 2026 — zero production across his entire sample this season against this specific pitcher. Career across 9 PA: .125 AVG, 0.347 OPS. Schlittler's 11.21 K/9 makes weak-contact hitters particularly vulnerable, and Aranda's season OPS of .792 drops dramatically in this matchup. The market at +102 (49.5% implied) undervalues the matchup edge given a full 6-PA, 0.000-OPS line in 2026 — this is a clear value spot on the under side.

Aranda is 1-for-3 (.333 AVG) vs Suarez with a 1.167 OPS in 4 career PA (all in 2024). Season line of .278/.362/.437 with OPS of .849 vs righties — and Suarez is a LHP but Aranda's vR split is his stronger side at .849. Aranda's recent L7d OPS is 1.146, the hottest stretch in the TB lineup. Suarez has had two of three recent starts produce 2 K and 3 K respectively, signaling he's not missing bats reliably. At -200 the market agrees Aranda gets a hit most of the time — the BvP history gives an additional signal above and beyond his season numbers.