José Caballero

Caballero owns one of the best BvP edges on the slate vs Valdez: 18 career PA at .462 AVG and 1.375 OPS. The 2025 sample is especially damning for Valdez — Caballero went 1.904 OPS across 8 PA last season. Caballero's vL split is 0.713, serviceable against a lefty. Valdez's 2026 ERA is 4.09 with a 1.34 WHIP; in his last 3 starts he had a blowup (4 ER in 5 IP vs MIN) and limited himself to 5-6 IP range. Caballero's season OPS of .730 in 231 PA is solid. With the Yankees favored and expected to score, Caballero getting 3-4 PA with a .462 career mark vs this pitcher is a strong over signal.

Career vs Williams: 7 PA, .600 AVG, 2.114 OPS, 1 HR. In 2026 specifically: 2 PA, 3.500 OPS (note: small 2-PA sample). 2024 matchup showed 1.267 OPS across 5 PA — the larger sample reinforces the trend. Caballero's .257/.312/.394 season line is modest, but his career track record against Williams is among the strongest BvP edges in this game. The -164 price reflects market awareness but the historical dominance supports the over.