Justin Wrobleski under 4.5 strikeoutsV
Sep 17, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8600
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Wrobleski's season K/9 is 7.50 (111 K in 133.1 IP), but his last 3 starts are the red flag: 1 K (2.0 IP), 6 K (3.0 IP), 4 K (2.0 IP) — averaging just 3.7 Ks across 2.3 IP per outing. Only 1 of those 3 starts cleared 4.5 Ks (the 6 K game in 3 IP). Eleven days of rest may stabilize him, but the pattern of extreme brevity is alarming. CIN batter vs Wrobleski career data is nearly all 1-PA samples with no meaningful signal, but Wrobleski's own recent performance — not the matchup — is the controlling variable here. Under 4.5 at -116 carries real edge given the innings-limit pattern.
Justin Wrobleski under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 6, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7700
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Confirmed multi-arm strategy has Wrobleski likely limited to 3-5 innings, with Bobby Miller handling bulk. Last 3 starts: 4 K (2.0 IP), 6 K (6.0 IP), 3 K (3.1 IP) — two of three were truncated outings. Wrobleski's 2026 K/9 is ~7.30 (104 K in 128.1 IP), but with a capped pitch count, reaching 5+ Ks requires sustained efficiency he hasn't shown in short-stint roles. Sept 1 (2.0 IP outing) illustrates the floor risk. The under at -130 reflects reasonable market pricing for an outing-length constrained arm.
Justin Wrobleski under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Aug 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0400
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Wrobleski has logged only 94 K in 120.1 IP in 2026 (7.04 K/9), well below the rate needed to sustain 4.5 Ks per start. His last two outings were cut short: 3.1 IP / 3 K vs ARI (Aug 09), 4.1 IP / 4 K vs CHC (Aug 03). Both fell under the line before his outing even ended. His two prior starts vs MIL produced exactly 4 Ks in 5.0 IP each — historically right at the under. The outs market has him projected under 17.5 outs (-123) indicating the market already expects another abbreviated start. At +104, the under offers clear value against a market pricing this near even.
