Kazuma Okamoto over 1.5 total basesL
Sep 27, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0800
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Okamoto owns a .861 OPS vs LHP compared to .730 vs RHP — a 131-point advantage that directly applies against Williamson. He has 33 HR and a .454 SLG this season. Williamson carries a 4.89 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 2026 with elevated walk rates (27 BB in 49.2 IP). Rogers Centre HR factor is 1.08. Okamoto's L28d OPS of .893 shows he's hitting well entering today. Over 1.5 total bases at +108 (48.1% implied) underprices a .454 SLG hitter with massive LHP splits facing a struggling lefty starter.
Kazuma Okamoto to hit a home runL
Sep 25, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 4.3990
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Okamoto has 33 HR on the season with a vL OPS of 0.848 vs left-handed pitching — Lodolo is LHP. L28d OPS of 0.889 confirms he remains dangerous. Lodolo has surrendered 20 HR in 103.2 IP in 2026 (1.74 HR/9), and Rogers Centre carries an HR park factor of 1.08. At +340 (22.7% implied), there is mild value relative to his underlying HR rate against a homer-prone southpaw.
Kazuma Okamoto to hit a home runL
Sep 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 4.9000
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Okamoto just launched his 33rd HR in Game 1 of this series (1-for-4, 3 RBIs). Season .236/.310/.466 with 33 HR on the year. Rogers Centre HR factor 1.08 is above-average. NEWS INTEL confirms Drew Anderson (DET) as actual road starter: 1-5 record and 4.63 ERA in 2026 road starts. Anderson has allowed 17 HR in 147 IP overall, and road splits are significantly worse. At +390 (20.4% implied), this is a live long-shot with a power hitter riding momentum in a friendly HR park.
