Ke'Bryan Hayes

Hayes is posting historically bad numbers: .141/.194/.225 across 242 PA on the season. His vR OPS of 0.407 vs right-handed pitching is the key signal — Soriano is RHP. L28d OPS: 0.130. L7d OPS: 0.166. This is not a brief slump; it has persisted across the full season. Market prices the under at just -114 (53.2% implied), meaningfully underweighting how suppressed his contact rate truly is.

Hayes is hitting .148/.205/.239 on the season — one of the weakest bats in baseball. His vR OPS of 0.423 against LHP Skubal is brutal. Career vs Skubal: 11 PA, .200 AVG, 0.473 OPS. Year-by-year trend is deteriorating: 2024 was 3 PA at 0.333 OPS, 2025 was 3 PA at 0.000 OPS. L7d OPS of 0.154 — essentially hitless over the last week. Elite pitcher, near-bottom-of-lineup bat with a proven inability to reach base vs this specific starter. At -106, this is underpriced given the multi-layered evidence.

Hayes is 2-for-11 (.200 AVG, 0.473 OPS) in 11 career PA vs Skubal — and the year-over-year trend is a clear decline: 2021 (1.000 OPS), 2022 (0.666 OPS), 2024 (0.333 OPS), 2025 (0.000 OPS in 3 PA). His 2025 sample is 0-for-3 with zero production. Season stats are equally alarming: .151 AVG, .456 OPS in 214 PA, and his L7d OPS is 0.000. Against a pitcher of Skubal's caliber (2.86 ERA, 10.82 K/9 in 2026), Hayes represents one of the weakest bats in the Reds lineup with historically poor results specifically against this opponent.