Kerry Carpenter

Carpenter has 13 HR in 205 PA in 2026 with .503 SLG and .840 OPS vs RHP — Detroit's most dangerous right-handed power bat. Eovaldi has surrendered 17 HR in 100.1 IP (approximately 1.53 HR/9), above league average, indicating some home run vulnerability despite his strikeout rates. Globe Life Field carries an HR park factor of 0.92, a modest suppressor, and the Under game total pick limits overall ceiling — this stays LOW confidence and is a value lottery rather than a primary lean. Career vs Eovaldi is only 3 PA at .000 AVG (small sample, no strong BvP signal in either direction). At +330, the implied 23.3% probability is worth a speculative add given Carpenter's consistent power output.

Carpenter owns .503 SLG and 13 HR on the season with L7d OPS of 1.028 — red-hot in the recent stretch. His vR splits at .839 OPS against RHP are elite, and Warren is a RHP with 9 HR allowed in 84 IP (0.96 HR/9). Yankee Stadium HR park factor of 1.15 amplifies right-handed power. Career vs Warren: 3 PA at .000 — tiny sample, not predictive. With Tigers offense surging and Carpenter scalding hot, +285 provides genuine value on an anytime HR.

Carpenter is surging with a 1.014 OPS over his last 7 days and has 12 HR on the season (.494 SLG, .828 OPS vs RHP). He faces Schlittler, who has allowed 6 HR in 100.0 IP in 2026 — manageable, but not elite suppression. Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.15 benefits right-handed power to the short porch, and Carpenter bats RH. Career vs Schlittler: 3 PA (2025), 0-for-3 — small sample, not predictive. At +360 (21.7% implied), his real HR probability on current form and park context is closer to 25-27%, offering positive expected value.