Kevin Gausman over 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 30, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8600
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Gausman's last 3 starts produced 7, 6, and 6 Ks — all comfortably over 4.5. Career vs SD includes 8 Ks in 6.0 IP (Jul 2026) and 9 Ks in 7.0 IP (May 2025). His 2026 K/9 sits at 9.3. Extended 7-day rest typically sharpens command and velocity for a veteran. Cubs are elimination-game desperate, which cuts both ways — potential aggressive swings open K opportunities. With a floor of 6 Ks in two of last three starts and a favorable career matchup vs this SD lineup, over 4.5 at -116 has clear statistical backing.
Kevin Gausman over 5.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6100
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Gausman is posting 9.26 K/9 in 2026 (177 K in 172 IP). Last 3 starts: 9 K, 6 K, 6 K — two of three cleared 5.5, the third hit it exactly. The 5.5 line is soft against a pitcher averaging 7 Ks per outing. Marlins lineup is the right opponent: .249 AVG, .727 OPS as a team. BvP data shows Agustín Ramírez 0-for-3 (0.000 OPS), Heriberto Hernández 0-for-3, Kyle Stowers 0-for-3, Graham Pauley 0-for-2 — four lineup spots with zero career hit vs Gausman. Extended 8-day rest means fresh arm late into counts. Even in his rough Sep 09 start (6 ER), he still fanned 6. Floor is high.
Kevin Gausman over 5.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8200
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Gausman's 2026 K/9 is 9.25 (171 K in 166.1 IP). Last 3 starts: 6K (4.0 IP), 9K (7.0 IP), 7K (5.0 IP) — two of three cleared 5.5 easily; the 6K miss came in a shortened 4-inning outing. Extended rest (6 days) supports deeper usage. In his last start vs ATL (Jun 02 2026) he struck out 8 in 6 IP. The 17.5 outs prop market (-141 for over) implies ~6 IP expected, which at 9.25 K/9 projects to roughly 6.2 K. Over 5.5 at -122 carries fair value against that projection.
