Market unavailableV
Jun 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0200
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Senga's last 3 starts: 5K in 4.0 IP, 1K in 2.2 IP, 3K in 3.1 IP — averaging just 3 Ks per outing. His 9.00 ERA and 1.88 WHIP mean he's getting yanked early, hard-capping K accumulation. He needs to survive 4+ innings to reach 5 Ks and hasn't accomplished that in two of his last three outings. News confirms he is among the Mets starters being 'knocked around early.' The 10.5 K/9 rate looks misleading on paper — it's being dragged up by his Jun 16 outing (5K, 4.0 IP). When you strip the outlier: 1K and 3K. The per-game ceiling given his short-outing pattern sits well below 4.5.
Market unavailableL
Jun 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1400
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Senga returning from 51-day IL (lumbar spine + ulnar nerve). 2026 stat line: 9.00 ERA, 23 K in 20.0 IP across four starts — but those last three outings lasted only 2.1, 3.1, and 2.2 innings with just 3, 3, and 1 strikeout respectively. Rehab stint produced 5 Ks in 6 innings at Double-A Binghamton. To clear 4.5 Ks tonight he needs to both throw strikes at an improved rate AND stay in the game. With 13 BB in 20 IP (5.85 BB/9), command remains the critical flaw. Rust + pitch-count management + elevated walk risk = severe cap on strikeout upside. Market pricing this at -159 for the over acknowledges the opportunity but undersells the ceiling risk. +114 for the under is clear value.
Market unavailableL
Apr 17, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1500
Read original reasoning
Senga's 2026 K/9 is 12.2 (19 Ks in 14.0 IP). In his two starts where he lasted 5+ innings, he recorded 7 and 9 Ks respectively. The April 11 outing (3 Ks in 2.1 IP) was an anomaly driven by 7 earned runs, not weak stuff. At +115 the market is undervaluing his elite strikeout rate — if he stays in 4+ innings, 6+ Ks is the baseline expectation. Risk is another early exit, keeping confidence at MEDIUM.
