Landen Roupp under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 14, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6400
Read original reasoning
Roupp's last three starts: 2 K (vs STL Sep 08), 4 K (@PIT Sep 02), 3 K (vs ARI Aug 27) — all three under 4.5, and his most recent outing was directly against this Cardinals lineup where he struck out only 2 in 6 innings. His 2026 season pace (139 K in 150.2 IP) reflects a higher ceiling, but the recent K suppression is consistent and opponent-specific. Market prices Under at -156 (61% implied), but the three-start trend and specific 2-K result vs STL make this stronger than the price reflects.
Landen Roupp under 5.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 8, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7200
Read original reasoning
Roupp's season K/9 is 8.55 (137 K in 144.2 IP), but his last 3 starts tell the real story: 4 K, 3 K, 2 K while topping out at 5.1 IP each outing. None of those three came close to 5.5. The trend is sharply down — he's averaging 3.0 Ks over his last three trips and struggling to even reach the 6th inning. At this rate and workload, clearing 5.5 would require a significant reversal. Under at -139 aligns tightly with the statistical evidence.
Landen Roupp under 5.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 2, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6500
Read original reasoning
Roupp's last 3 starts: 3 K (5.0 IP vs ARI), 2 K (5.1 IP vs CLE), 5 K (5.2 IP vs COL) — averaging just 3.3 Ks over that stretch. Despite a season K/9 of 8.58, his recent form shows a dramatic drop in strikeout production. His only 2026 start vs PIT (May 9) was 8 Ks in 4.0 IP, but that outlier is overshadowed by a consistent 3-start trend of sub-4 Ks. Market already prices under at -154 (60.6% implied), and the data confirms it.
