Logan Henderson under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 24, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8100
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Henderson's last 3 starts tell the real story: 2 K (4 IP vs LAD Oct 12), 4 K (5 IP vs SD Oct 4), 3 K (5 IP at PHI Sep 23) — 9 Ks in 14 IP, well under 4.5 in two of three outings and exactly on the line once. Postseason workload has limited him to 4-5 innings per start, capping his K ceiling. 31 days of extended rest introduces early-inning command uncertainty. Brewers bullpen takes over at medium depth, but the starter himself projects under based on recent output.
Logan Henderson under 5.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9200
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Henderson's 2026 K/9 of 10.07 (110 K in 98.1 IP) is elite, but his last three starts produced just 3K, 8K, and 6K — an average of 5.67, barely above the line. His most recent outing vs PHI (Sep 23): 5.0 IP, only 3 Ks. In a postseason Game 2 with Milwaukee potentially managing his workload, a 5–6 inning leash is realistic. At 5 innings and his K/9 pace, he'd average ~5.6 Ks — right at the margin. The Sep 23 form and inning-ceiling risk push this to the under. Market is nearly even at -109 (52.1% implied), so there's no heavy price to pay.
Logan Henderson over 5.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0200
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Henderson posts a 10.33 K/9 in 2026 (107 K in 93.1 IP) with just 1.55 BB/9 — an elite command-and-miss profile. Last 3 starts: 8, 6, 7 Ks — every outing cleared 5.5 and averaged 7.0. PHI lineup lacks any meaningful career exposure to Henderson (Arraez the only data point: 3 PA, 0.000 OPS), so there's no corrective BvP headwind. Outs market prices him at 14.5 Outs Over -200, implying 66.7% chance he works into the 5th inning with ease. Line of 5.5 is well below his floor at current form. Value at +102 is significant for a HIGH-confidence play.
