Logan Henderson under 5.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9200
Read original reasoning
Henderson's 2026 K/9 of 10.07 (110 K in 98.1 IP) is elite, but his last three starts produced just 3K, 8K, and 6K — an average of 5.67, barely above the line. His most recent outing vs PHI (Sep 23): 5.0 IP, only 3 Ks. In a postseason Game 2 with Milwaukee potentially managing his workload, a 5–6 inning leash is realistic. At 5 innings and his K/9 pace, he'd average ~5.6 Ks — right at the margin. The Sep 23 form and inning-ceiling risk push this to the under. Market is nearly even at -109 (52.1% implied), so there's no heavy price to pay.
Logan Henderson over 5.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0200
Read original reasoning
Henderson posts a 10.33 K/9 in 2026 (107 K in 93.1 IP) with just 1.55 BB/9 — an elite command-and-miss profile. Last 3 starts: 8, 6, 7 Ks — every outing cleared 5.5 and averaged 7.0. PHI lineup lacks any meaningful career exposure to Henderson (Arraez the only data point: 3 PA, 0.000 OPS), so there's no corrective BvP headwind. Outs market prices him at 14.5 Outs Over -200, implying 66.7% chance he works into the 5th inning with ease. Line of 5.5 is well below his floor at current form. Value at +102 is significant for a HIGH-confidence play.
Logan Henderson over 6.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0800
Read original reasoning
Henderson is 10-3 with a 2.34 ERA in 2026, punching out 99 batters in 88.1 IP (roughly 10.1 K/9). Last 3 starts: 6K, 7K, 7K — two of three clear 6.5. His lone 2026 start vs PIT produced 8K in 6.0 IP. On 7 days extended rest, deep outing is the expectation. Pirates are coming off a 1-run offensive output in Game 1 against this same rotation caliber, suggesting a chase-prone approach heading into Game 2. Market offers +108 on what analytics lean toward as a positive-expectation outcome — strong value at near coin-flip pricing.
