Logan Webb under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 13, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0200
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Webb's 2026 K/9 is 7.35 (127 K in 155.2 IP) — down from his 2025 peak of 9.74 K/9. In his three most recent starts vs SD specifically: 4 K in 4.0 IP (May 05 2026), 5 K in 6.0 IP (Mar 31 2026), 3 K in 6.1 IP (Aug 11 2025) — 2 of 3 results landed under the 4.5 line. SD carries a .706 team OPS vs RHP. The Under at +102 provides positive EV against the -143 overpriced over, backed by both the SD-specific K history and Webb's diminished 2026 strikeout rate.
Logan Webb under 5.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 7, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6400
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Webb's 2026 K/9 is 7.17 (119 K in 149.2 IP), but his last 3 starts have produced 1K (2.0 IP, 9 ER), 6K (6.0 IP), and 2K (2.2 IP) — averaging 3 Ks with two early exits. Two of three outings lasted fewer than 3 innings. If he is pulled early again, accumulating 6+ Ks is structurally impossible. Even in his one healthy outing (6 IP vs CIN) he managed only 6 Ks. Recent trajectory firmly supports Under 5.5.
Logan Webb over 5.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 1, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1800
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Webb's last two starts vs Pittsburgh (2025): 10 K in 6 IP (Aug 5) and 11 K in 5.2 IP (Jul 30). His 2026 K/9 has dipped to 7.19 (118 K / 147.2 IP), but this specific PIT lineup is a historically favorable matchup — career BvP shows Reynolds at .214 (16 PA), Cruz at .182 (12 PA), Horwitz at .222 (9 PA), and Lowe 0-for-3 (3 PA). Webb also gets 6 days rest. At +118, there's genuine market value baked into this line despite his 2026 K rate decline. Last start (Aug 26 vs CIN): 6 Ks in 6 IP, consistent with over-5.5 pace.
