Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Gurriel Jr. is the weakest offensive profile in the ARI lineup: .223/.273/.298 this season, L28d OPS of 0.509, L7d OPS of 0.606. No career BvP data vs McGreevy. At .223 AVG across likely 3-4 plate appearances, the realistic probability of going hitless is 55-60%. The market prices it at only 37.9% (at +164), suggesting the under is mispriced for a bottom-tier bat in clear offensive decline.

Gurriel is the weakest bat in the ARI lineup by any metric: .205 AVG, 0.547 OPS vs right-handed pitchers (Leahy is RHP), L7d OPS of 0.181, and L28d OPS of 0.243. His career vs Leahy is a meaningless 2 PA sample. Facing a RHP when his vR OPS is 0.547 and recent form is historically cold, the under at +186 (35% implied) materially undervalues the ~47-53% realistic probability he records 0 hits in this game.

Gurriel is 0-for-6 lifetime vs Pallante (.000 AVG, 0.000 OPS) — 0 hits across three separate season matchups (2022, 2024, 2025). That career futility pairs with a brutal current slump: .211 season average, L28d OPS 0.236, L7d OPS 0.236. He is arguably the coldest bat in this game. Pallante is coming off back-to-back quality starts and Busch Stadium plays slightly pitcher-friendly (runs factor 0.98). Under 0.5 hits at +164 represents significant overlay on a 0-for-6 career matchup with no sign of breaking out.