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Throws R · 2026 player profile
10-game rolling xwOBA
2026-05-17 — 2026-06-21 · 7 recorded dates. Lower xwOBA means less expected production allowed.
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No saved upcoming picks for Lucas Giolito.
Pick record checked Oct 13, 2026 ET. Local preview uses saved data.
Original reasoning and recorded results.
Showing 4 past picks from 4 linked picks since Jan 1, 2026 ET. Snapshot Oct 13, 2026 ET.
Jun 9, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7800
Giolito's last 3 starts: 5 K, 1 K, 2 K — averaging 2.67 Ks per outing. Only 11 total Ks in 16.2 IP across his entire 2026 season (5.9 K/9). The 4.5 line is nearly double his recent per-start average. His outs line (15.5) is also priced at -185 Under, reflecting multiple short outings. 13 BBs in 16.2 IP signal poor command that leads to early exits before accumulating Ks.
Jun 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9520
Giolito's last 3 starts: 1K, 2K, 3K — under 3.5 in every outing. 2026 overall: 6 K in 12.2 IP (4.27 K/9). His 12 BB in 12.2 IP show he's living in hitters' counts, not generating swings-and-misses. At -105 the market is barely pricing this in despite a clean 3-for-3 recent trend under the number.
May 29, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9600
Giolito has recorded only 5 Ks in 10.0 IP this season (4.5 K/9 in 2026) — well below his career norms. Last 3 starts: 2 K, 3 K, 3 K. His control issues (8 BB in 10 IP) suggest elevated pitch counts and early exits rather than deep strikeout-producing outings. Under 3.5 at -104 offers slight edge given his 2026 K rate averages 2.5/start.
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What he throws, how it moves, and when he uses it.
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | Whiff% | xwOBA | EV | HMov | VMov | Spin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam FastballFF | 42% | 90.8 | 16.7% | 0.435 | 95.0 | -6.6 | 17.9 | 2144 |
| ChangeupCH | 35% | 79.0 | 24.4% | 0.319 | 83.3 | -11.6 | 13.8 | 1541 |
| SliderSL | 17% | 83.1 | 48.6% | 0.165 | 85.0 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 1829 |
| CurveballCU | 7% | 76.9 | 7.1% | 0.341 | 91.1 | 3.4 | -13.4 | 2235 |
Heatmap · exit velocity in mph · catcher’s view. Choose a pitch type above to filter measured contact.
Updated 2026-10-13. Seasons are split by team. Innings use baseball notation: .1 is one out, .2 is two outs.
| Season / team | G | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · San Diego Padres | 7 | 5 | 29.2 | 18 | 23 | 5.16 | 1.85 |
| 2025 · Boston Red Sox | 26 | 26 | 145.0 | 121 | 56 | 3.41 | 1.29 |
| 2023 · | 33 | 33 | 184.1 | 204 | 73 | 4.88 | 1.31 |
| 2023 · Cleveland Guardians | 6 | 6 | 30.2 | 39 | 16 | 7.04 | 1.50 |
| 2023 · Los Angeles Angels | 6 | 6 | 32.2 | 34 | 15 | 6.89 | 1.47 |
| 2023 · Chicago White Sox | 21 | 21 | 121.0 | 131 | 42 | 3.79 | 1.22 |
| 2022 · Chicago White Sox | 30 | 30 | 161.2 | 177 | 61 | 4.90 | 1.44 |
| 2021 · Chicago White Sox | 31 | 31 | 178.2 | 201 | 52 | 3.53 | 1.10 |
| 2020 · Chicago White Sox | 12 | 12 | 72.1 | 97 | 28 | 3.48 | 1.04 |
| 2019 · Chicago White Sox | 29 | 29 | 176.2 | 228 | 57 | 3.41 | 1.06 |
| 2018 · Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 173.1 | 125 | 90 | 6.13 | 1.48 |
| 2017 · Chicago White Sox | 7 | 7 | 45.1 | 34 | 12 | 2.38 | 0.95 |
| 2016 · Washington Nationals | 6 | 4 | 21.1 | 11 | 12 | 6.75 | 1.78 |
| Career | 213 | 209 | 1188.1 | 1216 | 464 | 4.32 | 1.27 |
Existing chart-builder observations, grouped by date. Not an official box-score game log; missing values stay blank.
| Date | PA* | xwOBA | BA | EV (mph) | Barrel fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | 20 | 0.426 | 0.389 | 90.1 | 0.062 |
| 2026-06-15 | 23 | 0.351 | 0.350 | 90.7 | 0.056 |
| 2026-06-09 | 20 | 0.321 | 0.133 | 86.4 | 0.000 |
| 2026-06-04 | 18 | 0.359 | 0.353 | 88.6 | 0.083 |
| 2026-05-29 | 16 | 0.442 | 0.417 | 93.7 | 0.091 |
| 2026-05-23 | 21 | 0.378 | 0.250 | 87.8 | 0.000 |
| 2026-05-17 | 20 | 0.247 | 0.062 | 87.4 | 0.000 |
*PA is the count of appearances with a positive wOBA denominator.
Sample: 138 pa
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
Sample: 96 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 85 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 92 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
