Market unavailableW
Apr 26, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.2000
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Gil's 2026 K rate has cratered: 9 Ks in 15.1 IP (5.3 K/9) vs. his career 9.8 K/9. Last 3 starts: 2, 5, 2 Ks — averaging 3.0 per outing. He's also walked 8 batters in 15.1 IP, indicating command issues that inflate pitch counts and shorten outings before Ks accumulate. Line of 3.5 is already low, but with his recent trajectory Under is backed by three consecutive data points. At +120, the market is offering real value on the Under.
Market unavailableW
Apr 21, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7900
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Gil's 2026 strikeout output has cratered: 7 K in 9.0 IP (7.78 K/9) across 2 starts, averaging just 3.5 K/outing. Last 3 starts: 5, 2, 2 Ks — only 1 of 3 cleared 4.5. His 7.00 ERA and 4 HR allowed suggest he's pitching to contact and getting hit hard rather than missing bats. The 4.5 line is generous given his recent ceiling appears to be 5 K on a good day.
Market unavailableL
Apr 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8000
Read original reasoning
Gil's 2026 is alarming: 2 K in 4.0 IP (4.5 K/9), 3 BB, 6.75 ERA. Last 3 outings: 2K, 2K, 2K — a consistent pattern of suppressed strikeout output. His 2025 K/9 already declined to 6.48 from his dominant 2024 rate of 9.86. Even his 2024 wins vs LAA (6K and 9K) came when he was a different pitcher. With control issues limiting pitch counts, Gil is unlikely to throw deep enough innings to reach 5+ Ks, and the Angels are not a high-strikeout team (4th in majors in HRs last season, contact-and-power profile). Under 4.5 has strong data support.
