Luke Raley

Career vs Singer: 11 PA, .500 AVG, 1.745 OPS, 2 HR. That's 5-for-11 with elite production across four seasons (2022 through 2025) showing a consistent pattern — 0.666, 1.667, 2.334, and 2.500 OPS in successive years. Raley's 2026 line vs RHP is .777 OPS and he has 15 HR. Singer is allowing 1.95 HR/9 this season (21 HR in 96.2 IP). The BvP here is one of the clearest edges on the slate.

Raley carries a .784 OPS vs RHP (Burns is RHP) with 15 HR and a .459 SLG — a genuine power profile. His L7d OPS of .900 indicates a recent hot stretch. Burns' last outing (6 BB in 5 IP) demonstrated command fragility that creates baserunner opportunities for lineup regulars. At +102 (plus money), getting a right-handed power bat with solid RHP splits to record at least one total base represents marginal positive value when the pitcher's extended-rest command risk is factored in. Low confidence due to T-Mobile Park's HR suppression (HR factor 0.90) and game-level under lean.

Career vs Griffin Jax: 4 PA, .000 AVG, 0.250 OPS — 0 hits in every appearance against him. Most recent contact: 2025 (1 PA, 1.000 OPS — likely walk). His 2023 and 2024 PAs both produced 0.000 OPS. Season batting average of .232 is already below average, and Jax's 9.42 K/9 works against a right-handed swinger with a power-first profile but limited contact rates. Under 0.5 hits at -123 (55.2%) is reasonable value with the 0-for-4 career backing it.