MacKenzie Gore under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 27, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7300
Read original reasoning
Gore's last 3 starts produced 2, 0, and 2 Ks — a combined 4 total across three outings. While his 2026 season pace (~9.17 K/9 over 170.2 IP) looks strong, his recent form shows a dramatic collapse in swing-and-miss ability. His BB/9 remains elevated (70 BB in 170.2 IP) and his last three starts each lasted only 4.0-5.0 IP. MIN's lineup doesn't have an extreme strikeout profile to bail him out. With that cold streak intact, the under at -137 is the play.
MacKenzie Gore under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1400
Read original reasoning
Gore's last 3 starts are catastrophic: 0 K in 4.0 IP (Sep 16 vs BOS), 2 K in 4.0 IP (Sep 11 @ARI), 1 K in 3.0 IP (Sep 06 vs TB) — averaging 1 K per outing over that stretch. Despite 172 K on the season, he is clearly in a command and effectiveness collapse in his final weeks, unable to get deep into games (three consecutive sub-4-inning outings with 3-5 ER each). The market pricing the OVER at -161 massively overweights season totals vs current form. Under 3.5 at +114 is significant value when recent floor is 0-2 Ks.
MacKenzie Gore under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0400
Read original reasoning
Gore's season K/9 is 9.58 but his last 3 starts tell the real story: 2 K (4.0 IP), 1 K (3.0 IP), 4 K (5.1 IP). He's averaging just 2.3 Ks over his last three outings and getting pulled by the 4th or 5th inning. A pitcher who can't get through 4 frames cannot accumulate Ks. Under 4.5 at +104 is plus-odds value on a starter in obvious decline. No career matchup data for any BOS batter vs Gore eliminates a countervailing edge.
