Matt Waldron

Waldron has been getting knocked out historically early in 2026. Last 3 starts produced 1 K in 2.0 IP, 1 K in 0.1 IP, and 0 K in 1.0 IP — that's 2 total Ks across 3.1 innings of work. His season K rate of 31 K over 37.0 IP (7.54 K/9) is undermined entirely by outing length: he has not made it past the 2nd inning in any of his last three appearances. The Under 1.5 at -109 is a steal given this pattern.

Waldron's last 3 starts: 7K, 1K, 3K — extreme variance that averages just 3.67 Ks per outing. His 2026 K total is 15 in 18.2 IP (~7.2 K/9), dragged upward by a single outlier start. News confirms he is transitioning back from a bullpen/opener role on 13 days of unconventional rest, which the pitcher himself noted altered his preparation. MIL hits .240 AVG with .686 OPS and is on a W4 streak — a contact-capable lineup. Two of last three starts he posted 1 and 3 Ks respectively. The -102 near-even odds on the under offer solid expected value given the prep uncertainty and volatile K floor.

Waldron's 2026 K totals in last 3 starts: 3 K (5.0 IP), 4 K (3.2 IP), 3 K (4.2 IP) — 10 K across 12.2 innings, averaging 3.3 per start. Two of three outings came in under the 3.5 line. His 2026 overall: 7 K in 8.2 IP reflects a suppressed K rate that differs significantly from his 2024 career pace. Additionally, Waldron is allowing so many base runners (12.46 ERA, 4 BB in 8.2 IP) that early hooks are likely — fewer innings pitched means fewer chances for Ks. CHC's team K rate is not listed as especially high. Market is essentially a coin flip (-123 under / -119 over), but recent outing history tilts to under.