Matthew Liberatore under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0800
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Liberatore's season K/9 is 8.93 (148 K in 149.1 IP), but his last 3 starts show a dramatic collapse in punch-outs: 2K (6.0 IP vs SF), 2K (4.1 IP vs CHW), 3K (4.1 IP vs COL) — a combined 7 Ks in 14.2 IP, well below 4.5-per-start pace. He's also averaging only 4.9 IP over his last 3 outings, further limiting K upside. Despite strong earlier-season PIT outings (9K twice), current form points firmly under. +108 is genuine value.
Matthew Liberatore under 5.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 11, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5900
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Liberatore's last 3 starts: 3K in 4.1 IP, 9K in 5.2 IP, 7K in 4.0 IP. Volatile outing length is the key risk — when he gets touched early (as he did last start allowing 5 ER in 4.1 IP and two starts ago allowing 8 ER in 4.0 IP), he gets pulled before K totals can accumulate. CHW offense ranks 4.7 R/G with a .722 OPS. Liberatore's 5.57 ERA and 25 HR allowed in 139 IP signal consistent contact. One good start (9 Ks) is the risk, but his floor when the offense scores early is 3 Ks. Cardinals bullpen ranked 24th in ERA — early Liberatore exit is fully on the table. Under 5.5 at -169 is fair value given outing-length variance.
Matthew Liberatore under 5.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 5, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6700
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Liberatore's season K/9 of 9.45 (141 K in 134.2 IP) looks good on paper, but his Coors Field history against COL is a red flag: 3 K (Aug 08 2026), 3 K (Aug 12 2025), 0 K (Sep 25 2024). That's 6 Ks across 3 appearances at Coors — well below a 5.5-per-game clip. Altitude suppresses pitch movement, COL's lineup generates contact, and Liberatore's 5.41 ERA suggests he exits early when runs pile up. Coors shortens outings and caps strikeout accumulation. Under 5.5 is supported by both venue-specific history and early hook risk.
