Michael Lorenzen under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8300
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Lorenzen's last 3 starts: 1K (4.1 IP vs STL), 0K (3.0 IP vs TB), 2K (4.0 IP vs SD) — averaging 1K per outing, well under the 3.5 line. His two 2026 starts vs SF specifically: 1K (5 IP, Jul 12) and 2K (3.2 IP, May 29). His outs prop is priced -159 on Under 15.5, confirming the market expects a short outing. Short outing ceiling and cratered recent K rate make Under 3.5 the clearest bet on the slate.
Michael Lorenzen under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 9, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6600
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Lorenzen's 2026 ERA is 6.94 across 107.2 IP — he's getting shelled and pulled early. Last 3 starts: 0 K (3.0 IP), 2 K (4.0 IP), 5 K (3.2 IP) — only 7 Ks total in 10.2 IP across those three outings, averaging 2.3 per start. The outs market prices him at 15.5 (Under -156), implying ~5 innings expected, but his recent track record suggests 3-4 IP. STL ranks middle of pack in Ks vs RHP. Lorenzen's last two full-game lines were 0 and 2 Ks — the 5 K outing came in 3.2 chaotic innings vs WSH. Short outing probability caps his K ceiling hard.
Michael Lorenzen under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 3, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5700
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Lorenzen's 2026 K/9 is only 6.9 with 80 Ks in 104.2 IP, but the real story is his outing length — averaging just 14.1 outs per start (18th percentile). Last 3 starts: 2K (4.0 IP), 5K (3.2 IP), 1K (5.0 IP) — only 8 Ks across 12.2 innings. At Coors Field, the #1 venue in baseball for suppressing strikeouts, with 89°F heat reducing whiff rates further, his path to 4 Ks requires both an extended outing AND above-recent-form K rate. Neither is likely. TB's lineup doesn't have extensive BvP data vs Lorenzen, but Caminero (2.167 OPS in 6 PA) and Mullins (1.571 OPS in 7 PA) suggest contact, not Ks. Short, run-battered outings are Lorenzen's 2026 reality.
