Michael Wacha over 4.5 strikeoutsV
Sep 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8600
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Wacha's 2026 K/9 sits at 7.11 (149 K in 188.2 IP). News intel confirms 37 Ks over his last 7 starts — 5.3 per outing, comfortably above the 4.5 line. His lone career start vs PIT produced 8 Ks in 5.0 IP (Sep 2024). The market is essentially a coin flip (-120/-116), meaning the books see near 50/50, but the 7-start rolling average and career PIT matchup both lean Over. PNC Park runs factor 0.96 keeps contact down. Caveat: last 3 actual starts were 2, 4, 7 — inconsistent, hence MEDIUM rather than HIGH.
Michael Wacha under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8200
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2026 K/9 of 7.25 (147 K in 182.2 IP) — on a per-inning basis over a typical 6-IP start that projects to ~4.8 Ks, right on the line. Last 3 starts: 4, 7, 10 — high variance. Career vs HOU: 3 Ks and 6 Ks in two starts. Most recent HOU outing (May 12 2025): only 3 Ks in 6.1 IP. HOU averages 197 team HR (power lineup), but context suggests Wacha pitches to contact when needed. IF Astros make early contact under desperation mode, strikeout volume stays suppressed. Under at -122 reflects thin edge.
Michael Wacha over 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 8, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5800
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Wacha has posted 7, 10, and 6 Ks in his last 3 starts and carries a 7.28 K/9 in 2026 (143 K in 176.2 IP). The 3.5 line is extremely low for a pitcher who averaged 7.67 Ks per start across those three outings. His Aug 28 CLE start (10 K, 0 ER in 8 IP) shows elite strikeout upside. ARI enters fatigued after a 10-inning game and with depleted depth — contact quality may suffer. Getting over 3.5 Ks at -172 is strong value given recent K volume.
