Mike Burrows over 3.5 strikeoutsL
Jul 6, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6200
Read original reasoning
Burrows leads Astros starters with a 7.2 K/9 across 90.1 IP this season (72 Ks). He averages 5.2 IP per start — enough volume for 4+ Ks if his swing-and-miss stuff is on. Washington is 28-34 against RHP, and Burrows' season strikeout rate supports clearing 3.5 in a full outing. Last two full starts: 3 K in 5 IP and 3 K in 6 IP, which tracks close to the line — K/9 season profile gives the edge to over.
Market unavailableW
Jun 30, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9100
Read original reasoning
Burrows' 2026 K rate is 7.28 K/9 (69 K in 85.1 IP) but recent production shows a sharp decline: 3 K in 6 IP (Jun 24), 1 K in 1 IP (Jun 19), 5 K in 5 IP (Jun 13). Against MIN specifically this season: 2 K in 6 IP (May 20, 2026) and 1 K in 1.1 IP (Jul 12, 2025). His two starts against this Minnesota lineup have produced just 3 combined Ks. The market prices Under at -110 despite the historical evidence pointing clearly below 4.5.
Market unavailableW
Jun 24, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0000
Read original reasoning
Burrows has posted K counts of 1, 5, and 3 in his last three starts — two of three fell under 3.5. His 2026 ERA of 5.79 indicates he gets hit hard and is frequently pulled early; his last outing was just 1.0 IP. The 15.5 outs market line implies a projected ~5.2 innings, but his volatility and short-outing risk are real. At +100 (even money), the under 3.5 Ks carries excellent value relative to the risk profile.
