Mitch Keller under 4.5 strikeoutsV
Aug 2, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1800
Read original reasoning
Keller posts a modest 6.9 K/9 in 2026 (87 K in 113.2 IP). His 3 most recent starts vs CIN: 4 K (Jun 28, 6 IP), 6 K (May 01, 7 IP), 3 K (Aug 08 2025, 5.2 IP) — two of three are under 4.5. Last 3 starts overall: 4, 6, 3 Ks, averaging 4.3. The market also prices his outs prop under 15.5 (-161), signaling a short-outing expectation that caps his K ceiling. CIN is not a high-K lineup (team .705 OPS), but Keller doesn't miss enough bats against them to reliably clear 4.5. Under at +118 carries clear plus-money value.
Mitch Keller under 3.5 strikeoutsL
Jul 27, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.2400
Read original reasoning
Keller's last three starts: 6 K (5.0 IP), 3 K (3.0 IP), 1 K (6.0 IP) — averaging 3.3 Ks per outing. He's gone under 3.5 in two of the last three starts and his 2026 outing length has been erratic (cut to 3.0 IP in the ATL start). ARI's lineup doesn't profile as a high-K target — Perdomo (.077 career AVG vs Keller), Arenado (.148), and Moreno (.000) all make weak contact rather than swing and miss against him. If Keller is chased before the 5th again, the ceiling is capped. The +124 price is excellent value for the recent trend.
Mitch Keller under 3.5 strikeoutsV
Jul 9, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1000
Read original reasoning
Last 3 starts: 1 K (@WSH), 4 K (CIN), 4 K (SEA). Only 1 of 3 cleared 3.5. His 2026 K/9 is 6.64 (74 K in 100.1 IP), which projects to roughly 3.7 Ks per 6 innings — barely above the line. In his lone 2026 start vs ATL (Jun 05): 4 Ks in just 4.2 IP before getting pulled with 6 ER. Short outing risk is elevated against a Braves lineup that makes contact (.248 AVG team). Under at +110 represents clear market value — the market prices the over at -154, overrating a pitcher whose last three K totals are 1, 4, 4.
