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Bats L · 2026 player profile
10-game rolling xwOBA
2026-03-26 — 2026-09-27 · 131 recorded dates. Higher xwOBA means stronger expected production.
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No saved upcoming picks for Nathan Church.
Pick record checked Oct 13, 2026 ET. Local preview uses saved data.
Original reasoning and recorded results.
Showing 3 past picks from 3 linked picks since Jan 1, 2026 ET. Snapshot Oct 13, 2026 ET.
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.2000
Church is 0-for-4 career against Lake Bachar with a 0.000 OPS across 4 PA (2 in 2025, 2 in 2026). His season vR OPS is 0.684 — below average vs right-handed pitching. Bachar's recent workload pattern (1.0, 1.0, 2.0 IP in last 3 outings) suggests limited exposure, but Church historically produces nothing against him. +120 value on a player with zero career hits vs today's starter.
Sep 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5600
Church is riding a 12-game hitting streak, going 16-for-42 (.381) with 13 singles — hits in 11 of the last 12 games and 5 consecutive. L7d OPS is 1.101. Faces Blade Tidwell who owns a 4.82 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 2026, allowing contact at a high rate. Church's matchup history vs Tidwell is only 2 PA (0-for-2), but his red-hot contact streak dwarfs that small sample. Contact-first hitter thriving in a favorable park (Busch runs factor 0.98) against a shaky arm.
Apr 6, 2026 ET · Odds at publication unavailable
Church is 0-for-3 career vs Littell (small sample, but directionally consistent). His 2026 numbers are alarming: .115 BA, .148 OBP, 0.212 OPS vs RHP — easily the worst contact rate among regular starters in this game. L7d OPS of 0.053 indicates he is near hitless in recent games. Even with Littell's 5.40 ERA, Church's contact suppression makes Under 0.5 hits the play. +110 offers positive expected value given ~52% implied probability vs our edge.
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Which pitches he handles and how he makes decisions at the plate.
Heatmap · exit velocity in mph · catcher’s view. Choose a pitch type above to filter measured contact.
Updated 2026-10-13. Seasons are split by team.
| Season / team | G | PA | H | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · St. Louis Cardinals | 142 | 470 | 107 | 10 | 50 | .247 | .290 | .364 | .654 |
| 2025 · St. Louis Cardinals | 27 | 65 | 10 | 1 | 8 | .179 | .254 | .250 | .504 |
| Career | 169 | 535 | 117 | 11 | 58 | .239 | .286 | .351 | .637 |
Existing chart-builder observations, grouped by date. Not an official box-score game log; missing values stay blank.
| Date | PA* | xwOBA | BA | EV (mph) | Barrel fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 4 | 0.215 | 0.000 | 88.9 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-26 | 3 | 0.022 | 0.000 | 74.8 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-25 | 1 | 0.174 | 0.000 | 96.9 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-24 | 3 | 0.201 | 0.333 | 87.4 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-23 | 4 | 0.179 | 0.000 | 82.4 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-22 | 3 | 0.075 | 0.333 | 72.0 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-20 | 3 | 0.009 | 0.000 | 70.5 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-19 | 4 | 0.326 | 0.400 | 81.1 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-18 | 3 | 0.453 | 0.333 | 101.2 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-16 | 5 | 0.223 | 0.400 | 84.8 | 0.000 |
*PA is the count of appearances with a positive wOBA denominator.
Sample: 470 pa
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 50 plate appearances.
Sample: 360 bip
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 360 bip
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 360 bip
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 470 pa
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 50 plate appearances.
Sample: 470 pa
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 50 plate appearances.
