Nathan Eovaldi under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 26, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7400
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Eovaldi's last 3 starts are alarming: 1.0 IP/0 K vs NYM (Sep 22), 1.0 IP/1 K vs TOR (Sep 19), 4.0 IP/1 K vs BOS (Sep 16). That's 2 total strikeouts across three outings. He cannot get through innings right now, let alone rack up Ks. Even in his best recent outing (4 IP), he managed just 1 K. With -103 juice on the over and -135 on the under, the market still underprices how badly he's been getting knocked out early. Under 3.5 is the play.
Nathan Eovaldi under 6.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 7, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9700
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Eovaldi's last 3 starts: 2 K (4.0 IP), 8 K (7.0 IP), 5 K (5.0 IP) — only one of three cleared 6.5. His most recent outing (5 K, 6 ER in 5.0 IP vs HOU) raises legitimate concerns about shortened outings driven by command issues (30 BB in 127.1 IP in 2026, 4.31 ERA). If he struggles early and exits by the 5th again, he won't accumulate enough volume. BAL historically struggles vs SP, which could reduce Eovaldi's need to miss bats — batters may be putting the ball in play rather than running full counts. Market is nearly even at -103 Under, offering modest value on the lean.
Nathan Eovaldi over 5.5 strikeoutsL
Jul 31, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6200
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Eovaldi's 2026 K/9 sits at 9.57 (130 K in 122.1 IP). His two most recent full outings: 8 K in 7.0 IP vs SEA (Jul 25) and 10 K in 6.0 IP vs LAA (Jul 9). Prior HOU matchups in 2026: 6 K (7.0 IP, May 28) and 8 K (7.0 IP, May 17) — both straddling or clearing 5.5 with room. Line of 5.5 is low given his trajectory. TEX injuries (Seager, Jung) depleting lineup depth supports extended pitching and more chase-rate opportunities against struggling Rangers bats hitting .245 AVG as a team. Risk: ATL start (4.0 IP, 2 K) shows early exit potential.
