Nick Lodolo under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 25, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5700
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Lodolo's last 3 starts: 1 K (7.0 IP), 4 K (7.0 IP), 6 K (4.2 IP) — averaging just 3.67 Ks per start over that stretch. Two of three starts landed under this 4.5 line. His 2026 K/9 of 6.95 is already down from prior seasons, and command has collapsed with 44 BB in 103.2 IP (3.83 BB/9). TOR goes 23-21 vs LHP, generating solid contact. Market at -175 / 63.7% implied confirms the statistical edge, and his recent trend makes this a clear lean.
Nick Lodolo over 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 19, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1000
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Lodolo averaged exactly 5.0 Ks across his last 3 starts (4, 6, 5). His 2026 K rate is 79 Ks in 96.2 IP (7.39 K/9). Facing a CHC lineup that strikes out at a reasonable clip, and Lodolo has cleared 4.5 Ks in 2 of his last 3 outings. At +110, the market undervalues his K upside given recent consistency. His last outing vs CHC: 4 K in 5.0 IP (Jul 11) — right at the line, with upside given normal rest today.
Nick Lodolo over 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 14, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1400
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Lodolo's last three starts: 6 K (4.2 IP vs LAD Sep 08), 5 K (6.0 IP vs SD), 5 K (4.0 IP vs SF) — all three cleared 4.5 strikeouts. Critically, his Sep 08 start against this same LAD lineup produced 6 Ks in just 4.2 IP, showing he punches out Dodgers hitters efficiently even in shortened outings. 2026 K/9 is approximately 7.57. At +114, this is plus-money on a streak where he has consistently hit this number regardless of outing length. Primary risk: early hook cuts innings and counting total, but even in his shortest 2026 starts he has cleared 4.5.
