Nolan McLean over 5.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9800
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McLean is running a 9.87 K/9 in 2026 (189 K in 172.2 IP), making 5.5 a genuinely low bar. His only prior outing against TEX (Sep 14, 2025) produced 7 Ks in 6.0 IP. TEX is 51-59 vs RHP this season, signaling lineup-wide vulnerability to right-handed pitching. On 6 days of extended rest, McLean figures to be fresh and extended. The market prices this over at -102 — exceptional value for a pitcher whose per-9 rate projects to 6-7 Ks in a standard 6-inning outing. Last 3 starts yielded 5, 5, and 7 Ks, with the outlier PHI game (L, 3 BB) holding him down; the contact suppression has been consistent.
Nolan McLean under 6.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 11, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7300
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McLean's season K/9 is strong at 9.97 over 161.2 IP, but his last 3 starts produced 7K (6 IP), 4K (7 IP), and 6K (6 IP) — a 5.7 K average, comfortably under the 6.5 line. The outs line at 17.5 (nearly even money) projects roughly 6 IP, which at recent K rates yields ~5.7-6.0 Ks. The Yankees are 33-18 vs LHP (McLean is RHP), but their overall lineup depth — with Chisholm on IL and Grisham unavailable — still puts a capable lineup against him. Two of his last three starts were under this line. Market at -137 under / -103 over already leans this direction.
Nolan McLean under 5.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1600
Read original reasoning
McLean's season K/9 of 9.95 (172 K in 155.2 IP) looks elite, but his last 3 starts tell a different story: 4 K, 6 K, 3 K — averaging just 4.33 per outing. Only 1 of his last 3 starts cleared 5.5 Ks. SF Giants offense is weak (.247 AVG, .713 OPS) but not a high-strikeout team by profile. With recent form running well below his season rate, the under at +116 offers real value against a line anchored to season averages he hasn't hit in weeks.
