Otto Lopez

Lopez is 2-for-5 (.400 AVG, 1.200 OPS) career vs Mize, including a 2.000 OPS across 3 PA specifically in 2026. Season line of .307/.349/.441 with 0.767 OPS vs RHP. Mize has allowed contact in each of his last 3 starts (2 ER, 3 ER, 4 ER) and his 2026 K/9 of 7.75 reflects a pitcher who generates groundball contact rather than pure swing-and-miss. Lopez's 2026 BvP plus his season-long contact rate make this the clearest hit prop on the board.

Lopez owns a .600 AVG and 1.500 OPS career vs Merrill Kelly in 10 PA — one of the strongest BvP advantages in this matchup. His L7d OPS of 1.052 confirms he's currently hot. Season line of .305 AVG leads the MIA lineup. While 2026 split drops to 0.666 OPS in just 3 PA (small sample), the full career trend and current form both point to multi-hit production. At +176, this is strong value relative to the underlying BvP data.

This is a Hits + Runs + RBI combo at 1.5. Lopez leads MIA's offense at .306 AVG with 0.900 OPS in 6 career PA vs Gray — and notably his 2025 BvP OPS vs Gray was 1.334 (3 PA, improving trend). Lopez is MIA's leadoff threat with 9 HR and 27 SB, meaning even if he doesn't drive in runs, his hit+run combination gets him to 1.5 contribution when he gets on base and scores. MIA projected to score ~3.3 runs. Market at -118 (54.0%) is nearly flat — the positive BvP trajectory and leadoff role make this slight edge worthwhile.