Pete Alonso

Alonso leads BAL with 43 HR and is scorching in the L7d (1.423 OPS). He's facing Elmer Rodríguez who owns a 5.40 ERA in 26.2 IP with persistent control issues (1.58 WHIP). Yankee Stadium's HR park factor is 1.15 — a right-field-friendly park even for right-handed pull power. No career BvP data exists against Rodríguez but the profile (massive HR total, elite recent form, soft opposing ERA, favorable ballpark) checks enough boxes. +330 is fair value for a 43-HR bat in this environment.

Alonso has 41 HR on the season and has been on a power surge: 9 of those HRs came in his last 26 games, including 3 HRs in Wednesday's doubleheader vs Toronto. His L7d OPS is 1.082. Beck has surrendered 4 HR in just 7.2 IP in 2026 — an astronomical HR/9 rate that flags him as extremely hittable with power. Yankee Stadium HR park factor is 1.15 with a favorable short right-field porch. Total is under so this is capped at LOW confidence, but the Beck HR vulnerability and Alonso's active power streak create real anytime HR value at +330.

Alonso has 41 HR on the year and 9 of them came in his last 26 games — including 3 during the Toronto sweep last week. L7d OPS of 1.082 confirms he's in a power surge. His own quote — 'empty the tank' — signals full engagement despite Baltimore's elimination. Brandon Young allows 1.31 HR/9 in 2026 and his rocky third start of recent stretch (6 ER vs CLE) shows susceptibility when not commanding. Yankee Stadium HR factor is 1.15 overall. At +330 (23.3% implied), Alonso's elite HR rate and hot streak offer genuine value on the yes.