Randy Dobnak

Dobnak's 2026 K/9 is 5.92 (48 K in 73.0 IP) — one of the lowest rates in the league. Last 3 starts: 1 K, 4 K, 3 K. Only 1 of those 3 cleared the 3.5 line, and his most recent outing was 3.2 IP with just 1 K. CHW scores 4.8 R/G through contact, not strikeouts. Low-K sinker-heavy profile vs a lineup that puts the ball in play — Under is the overwhelming statistical lean.

Dobnak's last 3 starts: 4 K, 3 K, 6 K — average of 4.3 Ks, clearing 3.5 in two of three. Season K/9 of 6.12 (47 K / 69.1 IP) projects to roughly 3.8–4.5 Ks in a 5.5–6 inning start, which he has consistently delivered (last 3 outings: 5.2 IP, 6.0 IP, 6.0 IP). PIT lineup carries a .253 AVG and .732 OPS but also posts a team 9.22 K/9 staff rate, suggesting hitters in this park generate strikeout-eligible at-bats. At -102, the market is essentially a coin flip — the recent K average gives enough edge to take over.

Dobnak's 2026 K/9 is 6.08 (43 K in 63.2 IP) — well below league average for a starter. He is a contact-inducing sinker-baller, not a swing-and-miss arm. Most recent start (Sep 6 vs TOR): only 3 Ks. BOS lineup is capable but Dobnak's profile does not support accumulating strikeouts. Two of his last three outings featured 5 and 6 Ks (inflated by MIA and TOR weak lineups), while his floor is clearly in the 3 range. Under 3.5 at -112 is fairly priced given his profile.