Randy Vásquez under 2.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 27, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5600
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Vásquez is posting 5.68 K/9 in 2026 (85 K in 134.2 IP), already a modest rate. His last three starts produced 2 K (2.0 IP), 1 K (2.2 IP), and 1 K (1.0 IP) — a combined 4 Ks in 5.2 innings. The market prices this Under at -179, reflecting consensus, but the edge remains: his K rate barely projects to 3 Ks per start at his season average, and his recent outing-length volatility (three sub-3 IP appearances) caps opportunity. Against a desperate ARI lineup that will be grinding at-bats in an elimination context, strikeouts become even harder to accumulate.
Randy Vásquez under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 1, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7500
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Vásquez's 2026 K/9 sits at 5.56 (76 K in 123.0 IP) — well below the league average for a starter. Last 3 starts: 2 K, 3 K, 5 K. That 5-K outing came in 7.0 IP vs MIN; in his other two recent starts he totaled just 5 Ks across 10 IP. At his current pace he averages ~3.1 Ks per 5 innings of work. CIN lineup, while not elite, makes contact; without Suárez they lose a strikeout-prone bat but the order still presents contact hitters (McLain .191 AVG, Stewart, De La Cruz returning through injury). Under 3.5 is a coin-flip in the market (-133) but the season-long rate and recent start pattern both point comfortably below the line.
Randy Vásquez under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 26, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7700
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Vásquez 2026 K/9 is 5.64 (74 K in 118 IP) — well below the league-average pace needed to exceed 3.5 per outing reliably. His last 3 starts show extreme variance: 3 K, 5 K, 1 K — averaging 3.0. Most telling: across all three previous starts vs PIT specifically (Jun 01 2025: 3 K, May 03 2025: 3 K, Aug 08 2024: 3 K), he has hit exactly 3 strikeouts every time, consistently under 3.5. The market is nearly even (-130/-108), presenting value on Under given his PIT-specific track record.
