Reynaldo López over 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 14, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7900
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López K/9 of 8.39 in 2026 (71 K in 76.1 IP). Last 3 starts: 5 K, 6 K, 6 K — all three cleared 4.5. Even in shortened outings, he's generating strikeouts. CHC lineup includes multiple high-K hitters: Ha-Seong Kim batting .128, Ian Happ .218, Austin Riley .222. Career vs CHC batters shows Happ 0-for with 9 PA (.125 AVG), Hoerner 0-for in 4 PA, Bregman .167 in 15 PA. Market at -127 reflects the edge but last-3 trend gives strong data backing.
Reynaldo López over 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 9, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7700
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The outs market prices López at 15.5 outs (-159/+112), implying an expected outing of 5+ innings. A starter going 5 innings against any lineup is expected to accumulate 4+ Ks in most cases, making 3.5 a low bar. Tampa Bay's contact-heavy .260 BA offense generates hard contact but pitchers still accumulate Ks against them — the market's own outs expectation supports López staying deep enough to clear this modest threshold comfortably.
Reynaldo López under 4.5 strikeoutsV
Aug 1, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7400
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López carries a solid 8.29 K/9 in 2026 (66 K in 71.2 IP), but outing-length risk undermines the K ceiling. His two 2026 starts vs WSH lasted just 2.0 IP and 1.0 IP respectively. Last 3 starts: 6 K (5.2 IP), 6 K (4.1 IP), 3 K (5.0 IP) — only two of three cleared 4.5, and the 3-K outing came in a full 5 IP. The outs market (Under 15.5 at -141) signals the market expects him to fall short of 5+ innings. If he exits before the sixth, reaching 5 Ks becomes very difficult. Under 4.5 at -135 is a narrow but real edge.
