Robbie Ray

7.61 K/9 in 2026 (140 K in 165.2 IP). Outs line of 11.5 projects ~3.8 IP; at 7.61 K/9 that yields ~4.8 projected Ks. Brewers rank 13th in wRC+ vs LHP — softer offensive pressure means more individual at-bat battles and deeper counts leading to Ks. Recent outings: 2, 6, 5 Ks — only the shortened LAD start missed. Line of 3.5 is low enough that even a below-average Ray outing clears it.

Ray's last 3 starts: 5 K (5.0 IP vs SF), 1 K (2.1 IP vs NYY), 4 K (6.0 IP vs TB) — averaging just 3.3 Ks per start. His 81 BB in 156.1 IP (4.66 BB/9) reflects severe command issues that limit K opportunities. In his 3 outings vs COL this season, he posted 4, 4, and 6 Ks — two of three came in under the 4.5 line. The Coors Field environment (runs factor 1.25) encourages contact rather than strikeouts, further suppressing his K ceiling.

Ray's last 3 starts: 1 K (2.1 IP), 4 K (6.0 IP), 5 K (5.1 IP) — average of 3.3 Ks, well below the 4.5 line. Post-trade numbers are alarming: 20 K to 20 BB in 28.2 IP (6.3 BB/9), meaning elevated pitch counts that force early exits and cap strikeout volume. The 2.1-IP outing in his most recent start is a red flag. Oracle Park's 0.93 runs factor suppresses offense but Ray's command issues, not the park, are the story. Under 4.5 at -103 (near even money) is clear value with a recent trend firmly pointing lower.