Robert Stock under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 9, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6300
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Stock's 2026 K/9 is 8.59 (25 K in 26.1 IP) but his outing length is wildly inconsistent. Last 3 starts: 0 K (0.1 IP vs SF), 4 K (5.1 IP vs TB), 2 K (4.0 IP vs MIL). Only one of his last three real outings cleared 4 Ks, and even that (4 K in 5.1 IP) doesn't reach the 5 needed to go Over 4.5. His prior start vs MIA (Aug 2): 4 K in 5.0 IP — again, under the line. With 13 BB in 26.1 IP he tends to nibble, and a short hook is always possible given his 5.81 ERA. MIA lineup is averaging 4.4 R/G at home and will be aggressive early against a shaky starter, limiting his deep-inning access.
Robert Stock under 3.5 strikeoutsL
Aug 31, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6400
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Stock's last 3 outings capped at 4.1 IP max (4.0, 4.1, 4.1 IP). His most recent start: 4.0 IP, 7 ER, only 2 Ks. With a 7.40 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in 2026, Tampa Bay's offense (4.5 R/G at home, 46-23 home record) is likely to chase him early, killing the counting stat opportunity. Market already prices Under at -156 (61.0%) — the blowout risk angle makes this a clear lean.
Robert Stock over 3.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 19, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7100
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Stock's 2026 K/9 sits at 9.47 across 12.1 IP — legitimate swing-and-miss stuff despite the bloated ERA. Last 3 starts: 5 K (Aug 14 vs WSH), 4 K (Aug 8 @PIT), 4 K (Aug 2 vs MIA). All three cleared 3.5. The control problems hurt his ERA but don't suppress strikeouts. 3-for-3 over the line in recent outings is a clean signal. Padres lineup posts .238 AVG, and Stock's K rate is the dominant variable here.
