Ryan Feltner

Feltner's 2026 K/9 is 6.85 (81 K in 106.2 IP). His last 3 starts produced 5K, 6K, and 6K — all over 4.5 — even in outings where he allowed significant damage (4 ER, 5 ER). NYY's lineup is power-heavy but does strikeout at a rate consistent with his profile. With 6 days rest and his recent K output holding up even in short outings, the over at +112 offers real value.

Feltner's only start vs STL in 2026 (Aug 07) produced just 2 K in 5.1 IP — the most directly relevant data point. His 2026 K rate is 76 K in 101.2 IP (~6.7 K/9), which with a shortened outing risk becomes a real problem: the market prices Feltner 15.5 outs Under at -164, meaning the field expects he won't complete 5.2 IP. If he exits early, 3.5 Ks is a tough ask. Coors Field altitude also suppresses breaking-ball sharpness. Cardinals have wild-card urgency driving disciplined, contact-oriented at-bats per the scouting report. Under 3.5 at -115 is a fair price.

Feltner's last 3 starts: 3 K, 2 K, 2 K — 7 total Ks across 15.1 IP, a 4.11 K/9 clip that is cratering under his season 6.26 K/9. His command is broken: 5.97 ERA, 1.4+ WHIP, 3 BB/start recently. WSH lineup features contact-heavy hitters (Chaparro 1.096 vR OPS, Abrams .949 vR OPS) who will make contact and work counts rather than swing and miss. Under 3.5 is the clearest pitcher prop on the board.