Ryan Gusto over 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6200
Read original reasoning
Gusto's 2026 K/9 is 7.52 (69 K in 82.2 IP). His most recent start against this exact Cubs lineup (Sep 5) produced 5 Ks in 4.2 IP — well over the line. Even in his quietest recent outing (3 Ks vs LAD in 6 IP), his per-inning rate stays relevant. Cubs hitters create high-leverage counts with their .769 OPS and playoff urgency. 7 days extended rest could sharpen his stuff early in the start. At -161, the market agrees. The primary risk is an early hook if Cubs score, but even a 4-inning exit at his rate projects ~5.5 Ks.
Ryan Gusto over 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9100
Read original reasoning
Gusto's last 3 starts: 3 K (LAD), 5 K (CHC), 4 K (WSH) — average of 4.0, clearing 3.5 in 2 of 3. His 2026 K/9 is 7.49 over 78.1 IP. ARI is 53-59 vs RHP this season (.473), a lineup that struggles against right-handers and features multiple batters who are 0-for career vs Gusto (Marte 0.000 OPS, Arenado 0.000 OPS in 2026 matchup). The slight market edge toward under (-127 vs -110) creates value on the over given recent strikeout trend.
Ryan Gusto under 3.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 5, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1000
Read original reasoning
Gusto's last 3 starts: 4K, 2K, 2K — averaging 2.67 Ks per outing, going under 3.5 in two of three. His outings have also been short (4.1, 5.2, 4.0 IP), which caps accumulation regardless of per-inning rate. His 2026 line (57 K in 67.2 IP) shows a serviceable mid-range K rate, but the short-stint pattern is the dominant signal. Under at +110 offers genuine positive value against the 47.6% market implied probability.
