Ryan O'Hearn over 0.5 total basesL
Sep 24, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5600
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O'Hearn is 5-for-5 PA career vs Leahy with .500 AVG, 1.850 OPS, and 1 HR — with 3 of those 5 PA in 2026 producing a 1.666 OPS. His season line of .267/.333/.448 with 18 HR and a vR OPS of 0.852 confirms he handles right-handed pitching well. With the total bases line at 0.5, a single clears this — a low bar given his contact history vs Leahy. If Leahy gets chased early as his recent pattern suggests, O'Hearn may only get 1-2 looks at him anyway, making his success rate against this pitcher even more relevant per PA.
Ryan O'Hearn over 1.5 total basesL
Sep 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.3600
Read original reasoning
Career vs Wacha: 11 PA, .300 AVG, 1.264 OPS, 2 HR — the strongest BvP edge in the PIT lineup. O'Hearn's 2026 vRHP OPS is 0.860 and he has 18 HR on the season. At +136, the market prices this at 42.4% — the BvP history and power profile suggest the true probability is meaningfully higher. Risk: L7d OPS has dipped to 0.453, and PNC Park HR factor of 0.9 mildly suppresses extra-base hits.
Ryan O'Hearn over 1.5 total basesL
Jul 30, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1200
Read original reasoning
O'Hearn is batting .274/.337/.462 with 17 HR and a .798 OPS over the last 7 days. His 2026 career vs Lowder: 2 PA, 3.000 OPS (small sample but zero suppression signal). Lowder's 5.61 ERA and tendency to get hit hard — 8 ER in 2.1 IP vs COL, 8 ER in 1.1 IP vs PIT — signals risk of extra-base contact. GABC HR factor 1.18 amplifies O'Hearn's power potential. Over 1.5 total bases at +112 (47.2% implied) undervalues a batter with .462 SLG facing a struggling righty in a hitter's park.
