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Throws L · 2026 player profile
10-game rolling xwOBA
2026-03-30 — 2026-10-05 · 27 recorded dates. Lower xwOBA means less expected production allowed.
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Pick record checked Oct 13, 2026 ET. Local preview uses saved data.
Original reasoning and recorded results.
Showing 20 past picks from 21 linked picks since Jan 1, 2026 ET. Snapshot Oct 13, 2026 ET.
Aug 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7000
Last 3 starts: 4 K, 4 K, 6 K — averaging 4.67 Ks, well under the 5.5 line. vs TOR in 2026: 4 K (Aug 16), 2 K (Jun 12), 7 K (May 18) — average of 4.3 Ks against this exact lineup. While his season K/9 looks decent (140 K / 134 IP), his recent punch-out rates have cratered. Market already favors under at -143 but the BvP and recency data support the lean.
Aug 11, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6600
Weathers is at 9.81 K/9 in 2026 (132 K in 121.0 IP, 3.79 ERA). Last 3 starts: 6K, 4K, 7K — 2 of 3 cleared 5.5. Earlier vs SEA this season: 7K in 4.1 IP. SEA enters on a 4-game losing streak with a .229 AVG and .683 OPS team — one of the weakest offensive environments on the slate. Extended 7-day rest supports deeper outing and higher K ceiling. Risk: Yankees bullpen has been activated early in recent close wins (2-1, 2-0, 2-0 in recent games), potentially capping Weathers' pitch count before he can pile up Ks.
Aug 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7100
Weathers is at 9.86 K/9 in 2026 (126 K / 115.0 IP), but his last 3 starts produced 4, 7, and 5 Ks — averaging 5.3, just below the 5.5 line. Critically, the 4-K outing covered a full 7.0 innings, showing ground-ball efficiency over strikeout volume. His lone career start vs STL (Apr 2024) produced 6 K in 5.0 IP — a shorter, higher-K outing format. The market prices under at -141, reflecting the lean. Recent floor below the line, combined with STL's league-average strikeout rate, supports the under.
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What he throws, how it moves, and when he uses it.
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | Whiff% | xwOBA | EV | HMov | VMov | Spin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChangeupCH | 25% | 85.7 | 34.9% | 0.265 | 85.5 | 12.4 | 0.7 | 1950 |
| 4-Seam FastballFF | 22% | 95.8 | 21.6% | 0.406 | 94.5 | 10.8 | 15.4 | 2383 |
| SinkerSI | 21% | 94.1 | 8.8% | 0.359 | 90.1 | 17.7 | 8.3 | 2284 |
| SweeperSW | 20% | 81.2 | 38.4% | 0.284 | 82.4 | -13.4 | 0.5 | 2624 |
| SliderSL | 12% | 86.8 | 35.2% | 0.254 | 87.3 | -3.8 | 1.1 | 2651 |
Heatmap · exit velocity in mph · catcher’s view. Choose a pitch type above to filter measured contact.
Updated 2026-10-13. Seasons are split by team. Innings use baseball notation: .1 is one out, .2 is two outs.
| Season / team | G | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · New York Yankees | 25 | 25 | 137.1 | 143 | 38 | 3.60 | 1.22 |
| 2025 · Miami Marlins | 8 | 8 | 38.1 | 37 | 12 | 3.99 | 1.28 |
| 2024 · Miami Marlins | 16 | 16 | 86.2 | 80 | 24 | 3.63 | 1.18 |
| 2023 · | 15 | 12 | 57.2 | 43 | 29 | 6.55 | 1.68 |
| 2023 · Miami Marlins | 3 | 2 | 13.0 | 14 | 12 | 7.62 | 1.92 |
| 2023 · San Diego Padres | 12 | 10 | 44.2 | 29 | 17 | 6.25 | 1.61 |
| 2022 · San Diego Padres | 1 | 1 | 3.2 | 3 | 4 | 9.82 | 2.73 |
| 2021 · San Diego Padres | 30 | 18 | 94.2 | 72 | 30 | 5.32 | 1.38 |
| Career | 95 | 80 | 418.1 | 378 | 137 | 4.50 | 1.33 |
Existing chart-builder observations, grouped by date. Not an official box-score game log; missing values stay blank.
| Date | PA* | xwOBA | BA | EV (mph) | Barrel fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 3 | 0.334 | 0.000 | 85.2 | 0.000 |
| 2026-10-03 | 3 | 0.065 | 0.000 | 78.5 | 0.000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 17 | 0.425 | 0.471 | 81.3 | 0.143 |
| 2026-08-16 | 26 | 0.272 | 0.240 | 84.5 | 0.095 |
| 2026-08-11 | 22 | 0.239 | 0.105 | 84.2 | 0.000 |
| 2026-08-04 | 21 | 0.308 | 0.200 | 89.3 | 0.000 |
| 2026-07-30 | 26 | 0.257 | 0.130 | 89.1 | 0.000 |
| 2026-07-25 | 24 | 0.297 | 0.286 | 85.8 | 0.000 |
| 2026-07-20 | 23 | 0.400 | 0.333 | 93.5 | 0.125 |
| 2026-07-10 | 23 | 0.209 | 0.261 | 88.0 | 0.000 |
*PA is the count of appearances with a positive wOBA denominator.
Sample: 568 pa
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
Sample: 384 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 369 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 371 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
