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Throws R · 2026 player profile
10-game rolling xwOBA
2026-03-27 — 2026-09-27 · 19 recorded dates. Lower xwOBA means less expected production allowed.
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Pick record checked Oct 13, 2026 ET. Local preview uses saved data.
Original reasoning and recorded results.
Showing 9 past picks from 9 linked picks since Jan 1, 2026 ET. Snapshot Oct 13, 2026 ET.
Jun 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0000
Nelson's last 3 starts produced just 2, 3, and 3 strikeouts — a combined 8 Ks in 16.1 IP, well below the 4.5 line. His 2026 K/9 sits at 6.72 across 76.1 IP. Chase Field ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeout suppression. Even at even money (+100), the recent K floor and park factor alignment make Under 4.5 a clear statistical edge.
Jun 10, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8400
Nelson has recorded exactly 3 Ks in each of his last 3 starts (3, 3, 3). His 2026 K/9 sits at 6.85 (55 K in 72.1 IP) — well below the pace needed to clear 4.5. News intel confirms his FIP is above 5.0 suggesting weak underlying stuff. Market is essentially a coin flip (-119/-118) but his recent K ceiling of 3 per outing makes UNDER the clear statistical lean.
Jun 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0600
Nelson's last 3 starts produced exactly 3 Ks each (9 total across 20.1 IP = 4.04 K/9 over that stretch), well below the 3.5 line. His 2026 rate of 7.17 K/9 is contradicted by this sustained recent pattern. In 3 career starts vs LAD he posted 4, 2, and 9 Ks — volatile, but his current form is firmly in under territory. At +106, this is fair value with a strong recent-trend edge.
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What he throws, how it moves, and when he uses it.
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | Whiff% | xwOBA | EV | HMov | VMov | Spin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam FastballFF | 57% | 96.4 | 20.1% | 0.354 | 91.2 | -2.8 | 19.1 | 2280 |
| SliderSL | 21% | 88.5 | 27.6% | 0.298 | 89.2 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2392 |
| CutterFC | 10% | 93.0 | 14.5% | 0.465 | 89.2 | 2.2 | 13.6 | 2218 |
| CurveballCU | 9% | 80.9 | 21.4% | 0.318 | 90.9 | 8.0 | -7.3 | 2654 |
| SinkerSI | 4% | 95.3 | 21.4% | 0.418 | 91.4 | -8.6 | 17.8 | 2116 |
Heatmap · exit velocity in mph · catcher’s view. Choose a pitch type above to filter measured contact.
Updated 2026-10-13. Seasons are split by team. Innings use baseball notation: .1 is one out, .2 is two outs.
| Season / team | G | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 19 | 15 | 87.1 | 66 | 24 | 4.95 | 1.26 |
| 2025 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 23 | 154.0 | 132 | 41 | 3.39 | 1.07 |
| 2024 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 28 | 25 | 150.2 | 126 | 34 | 4.24 | 1.25 |
| 2023 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 29 | 27 | 144.0 | 96 | 46 | 5.31 | 1.42 |
| 2022 · Arizona Diamondbacks | 3 | 3 | 18.1 | 16 | 6 | 1.47 | 0.82 |
| Career | 112 | 93 | 554.1 | 436 | 151 | 4.30 | 1.23 |
Existing chart-builder observations, grouped by date. Not an official box-score game log; missing values stay blank.
| Date | PA* | xwOBA | BA | EV (mph) | Barrel fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 6 | 0.211 | 0.500 | 90.2 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-25 | 2 | 0.416 | 0.500 | 92.0 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-20 | 4 | 0.228 | 0.000 | 98.2 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-16 | 7 | 0.491 | 0.200 | 92.5 | 0.200 |
| 2026-06-15 | 29 | 0.268 | 0.321 | 88.9 | 0.043 |
| 2026-06-10 | 22 | 0.547 | 0.421 | 95.3 | 0.118 |
| 2026-06-04 | 26 | 0.272 | 0.208 | 87.0 | 0.000 |
| 2026-05-30 | 24 | 0.522 | 0.318 | 90.2 | 0.250 |
| 2026-05-24 | 31 | 0.267 | 0.222 | 86.9 | 0.000 |
| 2026-05-19 | 31 | 0.399 | 0.276 | 92.3 | 0.115 |
*PA is the count of appearances with a positive wOBA denominator.
Sample: 374 pa
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
Sample: 278 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 256 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 260 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
