Sal Frelick

Frelick has a .091 AVG and 0.258 OPS across 12 career PA vs Nola — the worst career matchup number in the MIL lineup against today's starter. His 2025 line of 0.666 OPS shows minimal improvement, and his 2026 sample (2 PA, 0.500 OPS) is too small to override a 12-PA career suppression pattern. Frelick's season line is .234/.297/.322 with minimal power, and his role at the bottom of the Brewers order limits run-environment exposure. Nola's recent stretch (7 IP, 0 ER Sep 17; 7 IP, 1 ER Sep 6) shows he can still control innings when locked in. At +122 this is an above-market price for a strong BvP under.

Frelick is 0-for-8 lifetime vs Wheeler with 0.000 OPS across 8 PA — the most decisive career BvP shutout in this matchup. His 2026 season slash is .234/.297/.322 and he owns zero extra-base power. Wheeler's 10.60 K/9 and elite command make contact even harder. Under at +110 represents clear positive expected value against a hitter with this level of career futility.

Frelick posted 0.000 OPS in his 6 most recent plate appearances vs Singer in 2026 — zero hits, zero production in the freshest data available. His season slash is .236/.300/.328 with a 0.400 OPS over the L7d, placing him among MIL's weakest bats. Career vs Singer is .267 AVG in 15 PA but the 2026 split is a hard zero. At +128, the Under offers positive expected value. Caveat: prior 2024-2025 data vs Singer was more productive, so this is a low-confidence lean on the most recent form.