Sal Frelick

Frelick is 0-for-5 lifetime against Rasmussen with a 0.000 OPS across both 2025 (3 PA) and 2026 (2 PA) appearances. His season slash of .230/.295/.319 is among the weakest in the Milwaukee lineup. Rasmussen generates weak contact at an elite level — 16 HR allowed in 193 IP, 1.14 WHIP overall. Career futility at a below-average season line makes the under the clear lean.

Frelick has a .091 AVG and 0.258 OPS across 12 career PA vs Nola — the worst career matchup number in the MIL lineup against today's starter. His 2025 line of 0.666 OPS shows minimal improvement, and his 2026 sample (2 PA, 0.500 OPS) is too small to override a 12-PA career suppression pattern. Frelick's season line is .234/.297/.322 with minimal power, and his role at the bottom of the Brewers order limits run-environment exposure. Nola's recent stretch (7 IP, 0 ER Sep 17; 7 IP, 1 ER Sep 6) shows he can still control innings when locked in. At +122 this is an above-market price for a strong BvP under.

Frelick is 0-for-8 lifetime vs Wheeler with 0.000 OPS across 8 PA — the most decisive career BvP shutout in this matchup. His 2026 season slash is .234/.297/.322 and he owns zero extra-base power. Wheeler's 10.60 K/9 and elite command make contact even harder. Under at +110 represents clear positive expected value against a hitter with this level of career futility.