Sam Antonacci

Antonacci is 1-for-11 with a .091 AVG and 0.258 OPS in 12 PA vs Williams in 2026 — the weakest performance of any CHW regular in this matchup. That is a full season of 12 plate appearances against the same pitcher all in the current year, making it directly applicable. The market offers Under at +124 (implied 44.6%), representing clear positive-value against the raw matchup data. Antonacci's season OPS of .766 shows he can hit overall, but his specific inability to handle Williams is the edge here.

Career vs Melton (all 2026): 10 PA, .500 AVG, 1.600 OPS, 1 HR. Best BvP mark of any CHW hitter in this matchup. Antonacci hits .268/.362/.388 on the season with a .787 OPS vs RHP. Melton has been shaky in his last three starts (2.2 IP, 5.2 IP, 5.1 IP — all shortened), limiting his ability to work through a lineup twice with command. Getting on base against him at this rate is well-supported.

Antonacci has never hit Williams — 9 PA in 2026, .000 AVG, 0.111 OPS total. That's a full sample against this specific pitcher and he's been shut down every time. His season average of .269 makes this under look like value at +126 (market implies only 44.2% chance of under). The market is underpricing what the BvP data says. Williams' 12.15 K/9 and Antonacci's complete inability to make contact against him is a strong signal. Getting plus money on the under here is the edge.