Shane Baz under 4.5 strikeoutsV
Sep 27, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9600
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Baz's last 3 starts: 2 K, 2 K, 5 K — averaging just 3.0 Ks per outing. His 2026 season total of 154 Ks over 179.2 IP works out to 7.72 K/9, but recent form tells a completely different story. He's lasting only 5–6 innings per start and getting tagged early. The outs line of 15.5 (Under -172) suggests the market expects ~5.2 innings from him — at his current rate that projects to roughly 4.4 Ks. Previous NYY appearances this season: 10 K on Aug 18 (outlier), 4 K on May 4. Recent contact-heavy performances push the under.
Shane Baz under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 21, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9800
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Last 3 starts: 2K (4.0 IP), 5K (5.2 IP), 6K (6.1 IP) — most recent outing only 2K in 4.0 IP. 2026 K/9 is 7.9, but short outings cap the ceiling. vs TOR on Jun 07 2026: just 3K in 5.2 IP. TOR team OPS .694 — not a strikeout-heavy lineup. Baz's outs prop line sits at 17.5 (just under 6 IP), meaning under 3.5 Ks is live. Market is nearly even money at -102, offering slight value on the under given the declining workload trend.
Shane Baz over 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7000
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Baz sits at 150 K in 169.0 IP in 2026 — approximately 7.99 K/9. His last 3 starts produced 5, 6, and 4 Ks; 2 of 3 cleared the 4.5 line. Six days of extended rest typically supports deeper, more efficient outings. Career vs NYM (Jun 2025): 6 K in 6.2 IP. NYM vs RHP is 52-56 on the season with no dominant contact core — the lineup features multiple sub-.700 OPS hitters. Over 4.5 at -143 is the sharper side.
