Shane McClanahan under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 3, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9900
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McClanahan's overall K/9 of 8.2 (103 K in 113.0 IP) masks a steep road-performance gap: 2-5 record, 3.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP away from home vs 3.19 ERA overall. Last 3 starts: 4 K (5.2 IP), 5 K (5.0 IP), 3 K (3.1 IP) — only one clears 4.5, and the trend is declining. Direct series evidence: vs TEX on Jul 30 he lasted 3.0 IP and recorded just 3 K — the Rangers have his number. Shortened outing pattern (3.0–5.2 IP in last 4 starts) physically caps K ceiling near the line. Market pricing Under at -101 / 50.2% represents real value given the road-split degradation and this specific matchup history.
Shane McClanahan under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 28, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7300
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McClanahan's last 3 starts: 5K/5.0IP, 3K/3.1IP, 3K/3.0IP — averaging 3.7 Ks per outing. Even his strongest recent start (5K in 5IP) barely clears 4.5. Despite elite home splits (7-1, 2.32 ERA, 8.0 K/9 at Tropicana), the workload management pattern is real — he's been pulled early in each of his last 3 outings. On 6 days rest against a Padres lineup posting .238 AVG (.703 OPS), the floor scenario is another 4-5 IP cap that limits K volume below 4.5. Market is near coin-flip (-137/-102) but recent outing history tilts under.
Shane McClanahan under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Aug 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8100
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McClanahan's last 3 starts: exactly 3 K in each outing (3.1 IP vs BAL Aug 17, 3.0 IP vs TEX Jul 30, 5.0 IP vs CLE Jul 24). Three consecutive starts at 3 Ks, all well under the 4.5 line. Averaging 3.8 IP across those three outings severely caps total K upside — he'd need to nearly double his recent per-start output to clear this line. His 2026 K/9 of 8.27 reflects season-long performance, not the shortened, low-K pattern of his recent month.
