Shota Imanaga under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1600
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Imanaga's 2026 K/9 is 8.65 and WHIP is 1.12, but his last three starts produced exactly 4 Ks each (vs PIT Sep 11: 4K, at MIA Sep 4: 4K, vs CIN Aug 30: 4K). He has not exceeded 4 strikeouts in any of his last three outings. The under 4.5 at +116 offers genuine value against a Braves lineup that profiles as a contact-first unit (.248 AVG team, 4.6 R/G). Three straight 4K games is a hard trend to fade, and the market's -164 on the over suggests books are relying on season rate rather than recent form.
Shota Imanaga under 5.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 30, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1400
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Imanaga's last three starts: 4K in 2.0 IP (Aug 23 @SEA), 10K in 6.0 IP (Aug 17 vs CHW), 5K in 4.2 IP (Aug 11 @WSH). Two of his last three outings ended before he could realistically accumulate 5.5 Ks. In his most recent outing vs CIN (Jul 10 2026) he went 5.0 IP with 5K — right at the line. His 2026 K/9 is 8.93 so he needs sustained innings to clear 5.5, and his outing-length variance is high. Reds have a few batters who have hurt him in 2026 — Matt McLain (1.167 OPS in 3 PA) and Sal Stewart (1.500 OPS in 6 PA) — creating early exit risk. Extended 7-day rest adds some upside, keeping confidence LOW rather than eliminating the play.
Shota Imanaga over 5.5 strikeoutsL
Aug 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9600
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Imanaga's 2026 K/9 sits at 8.8 (140 K in 143.1 IP). Seattle ranks 28th in BA (.229) vs LHP and posts a second-worst .640 OPS against southpaws — a structural platoon matchup advantage. His last 3 starts produced 10, 5, and 6 Ks; the 5-K outing was a shortened 4.2-IP start vs Washington, not representative of his ceiling. In full outings he consistently projects above this line. At -104, the market prices this as essentially a coin flip — clear value given SEA's team-wide LHP vulnerability.
