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Throws R · 2026 player profile
10-game rolling xwOBA
2026-03-30 — 2026-08-27 · 20 recorded dates. Lower xwOBA means less expected production allowed.
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Pick record checked Oct 13, 2026 ET. Local preview uses saved data.
Original reasoning and recorded results.
Showing 9 past picks from 9 linked picks since Jan 1, 2026 ET. Snapshot Oct 13, 2026 ET.
May 13, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7200
SWR's 2026 has been a disaster: 6.92 ERA, 19 K in 39 IP (4.38 K/9). Last 3 starts: 2K, 2K, 2K across outings of 4.1, 4.2, and 4.1 IP. He is consistently being pulled before the 5th inning and generating exactly 2 strikeouts per outing. To hit the over he would need to more than double his recent per-start output. Market at -139/+100 is attractive value on the under given the extreme recency of this pattern.
May 7, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8100
SWR has been historically bad with Ks in 2026: 17 Ks in 34.2 IP (4.4 K/9). Last 3 starts produced exactly 2 Ks each — May 1 vs TOR (2K, 4.2 IP), Apr 26 at TB (2K, 4.1 IP), Apr 21 at NYM (2K, 5.0 IP). He has not reached 3.5 Ks in any start this season. WSH lineup has contact ability (.716 OPS) but SWR simply isn't generating swing-and-miss at any volume. Under 3.5 is the clearest statistical edge on this slate.
May 1, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9100
SWR has 15 K in 30.0 IP in 2026 (4.5 K/9). Last 3 starts: 2 K, 2 K, 3 K — all under this line. His 2026 outings vs TOR specifically: 2 K in 4.0 IP (Apr 10). With 13 BB in 30 IP he's living on contact suppression, not swing-and-miss. Under 3.5 at -110 is solid value.
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What he throws, how it moves, and when he uses it.
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | Whiff% | xwOBA | EV | HMov | VMov | Spin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam FastballFF | 43% | 92.6 | 18.5% | 0.341 | 88.3 | -5.7 | 18.4 | 2204 |
| Split-FingerFS | 25% | 86.8 | 20.2% | 0.405 | 88.3 | -11.5 | 6.9 | 1139 |
| SliderSL | 22% | 86.0 | 18.9% | 0.397 | 89.3 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 2211 |
| CurveballCU | 10% | 76.8 | 11.8% | 0.323 | 93.7 | 6.9 | -13.8 | 2586 |
| SinkerSI | 0% | 91.7 | — | — | — | -10.6 | 18.0 | 2164 |
Heatmap · exit velocity in mph · catcher’s view. Choose a pitch type above to filter measured contact.
Updated 2026-10-13. Seasons are split by team. Innings use baseball notation: .1 is one out, .2 is two outs.
| Season / team | G | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · | 20 | 10 | 66.0 | 40 | 37 | 6.68 | 1.76 |
| 2026 · Toronto Blue Jays | 8 | 0 | 18.1 | 14 | 12 | 3.93 | 1.42 |
| 2026 · Minnesota Twins | 12 | 10 | 47.2 | 26 | 25 | 7.74 | 1.89 |
| 2025 · Minnesota Twins | 23 | 22 | 111.1 | 107 | 46 | 4.04 | 1.28 |
| 2024 · Minnesota Twins | 28 | 28 | 133.2 | 117 | 48 | 4.17 | 1.29 |
| 2023 · Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 4.2 | 5 | 3 | 9.64 | 2.14 |
| 2022 · Minnesota Twins | 1 | 1 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| Career | 73 | 61 | 320.2 | 272 | 136 | 4.72 | 1.39 |
Existing chart-builder observations, grouped by date. Not an official box-score game log; missing values stay blank.
| Date | PA* | xwOBA | BA | EV (mph) | Barrel fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 10 | 0.510 | 0.625 | 99.5 | 0.143 |
| 2026-08-23 | 4 | 0.427 | 0.250 | 75.2 | 0.333 |
| 2026-08-21 | 4 | 0.174 | 0.000 | — | — |
| 2026-08-15 | 7 | 0.250 | 0.000 | 92.2 | 0.000 |
| 2026-08-10 | 13 | 0.351 | 0.364 | 85.8 | 0.000 |
| 2026-06-25 | 11 | 0.439 | 0.000 | 85.3 | 0.167 |
| 2026-06-17 | 14 | 0.397 | 0.273 | 82.9 | 0.100 |
| 2026-06-08 | 13 | 0.213 | 0.077 | 90.6 | 0.000 |
| 2026-05-28 | 16 | 0.322 | 0.385 | 88.3 | 0.000 |
| 2026-05-25 | 8 | 0.233 | 0.143 | 84.8 | 0.000 |
*PA is the count of appearances with a positive wOBA denominator.
Sample: 303 pa
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
Sample: 224 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 203 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 213 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
