Spencer Arrighetti

Arrighetti's last 3 starts: 2 K (3.2 IP), 4 K (4.0 IP), 4 K (3.1 IP) — averaging 3.3 Ks while being pulled very early. His outing length alone caps strikeout upside; at 3.5 IP average he simply doesn't have the volume to pile up Ks. vs KC on Aug 27: 4 K in 4 IP. The under at -102 is near even money for a pitcher who has gone under 3.5 Ks in 2 of his last 3 starts with early hook risk in all of them.

Arrighetti's last 3 starts: 0 K (1.0 IP), 4 K (3.1 IP), 4 K (4.0 IP) — average of 2.67 Ks per outing. He needs 4+ to go over 3.5. Two of three recent starts ended before the 4th inning, and CLE batters with contact skills (Kwan .275 BA, DeLauter .293 BA) further limit his K upside. His 4.81 ERA and 54 BB in 95.1 IP signal command issues that drive early hook risk. Vs CLE in 2026 he did fan 8 in 6 IP (Jun 20) — the one outlier — but the current trend of short outings suppresses total K accumulation. Under at -110 is fair price given the recent usage pattern.

Arrighetti's last three starts: 4 K in 3.1 IP, 0 K in 1.0 IP, 6 K in 5.0 IP — averaging just 3.3 Ks across a wildly inconsistent stretch with two abbreviated outings. His 2026 K/9 of ~8.97 looks fine in bulk but masks the short-outing risk: two of his last three starts he didn't get through 3.5 innings. Coming back from 34 days of extended rest adds rust factor — pitchers returning from long layoffs frequently lose command early and get pulled. Even if he's healthy, under 3.5 in a volatile outing environment at +110 is sharp value. The TOR bullpen is depleted from a seven-pitcher day on Aug 26, which may pressure Arrighetti to go deep, but his recent command problems make that risky and more likely a bullpen handoff scenario.