Spencer Steer under 0.5 hitsW
Jul 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.3800
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Steer is 0-for-3 (.000 AVG, 0.000 OPS) in his only 3 career PA vs Kirby (2024). Small sample, but worth noting alongside a .660 OPS vs RHP this season — well below average. Kirby's FIP of 3.43 and strong command (K/9 of 8.02) make him a tough matchup for right-handed batters with mediocre RHP splits. Under is priced at +138 (42% implied), giving real value relative to the underlying contact suppression risk. At 3-5 PA expected in this game vs a quality RHP, the 0-for-3 career note plus below-average season splits against same-side pitching make this a worthwhile fade.
Spencer Steer over 1.5 hitsL
Jul 18, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.3400
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Steer has exploded in recent play — 1.218 OPS over the last 7 days and a .250/.330/.441 season line with 16 HR. He bats in a productive spot in the Reds order and faces an unknown Rockies starter (TBD, Sugano on IL), who is likely a weak emergency arm or the first of multiple bullpen pieces. Coors Field inflates contact and extra-base rates across the board. The +134 price on a red-hot bat in this environment has clear expected value.
Spencer Steer under 0.5 hitsW
Jul 11, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.5200
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Career .176 AVG, 0.535 OPS in 20 PA vs Assad across five seasons — no year produced meaningful success: 2022 (0.000 OPS in 4 PA), 2023 (1.238 OPS in 7 PA — the one outlier), 2024 (0.333 OPS in 6 PA), 2025 (0.000 in 2 PA), 2026 (0.000 in 1 PA). The 2023 spike is a small-sample exception; the overall career line of .176 across 20 PA is the dominant signal. Steer is also slumping with a .693 OPS over the last 28 days. At +152, the under has genuine value here.
