Tatsuya Imai under 6.5 strikeoutsW
Jul 27, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6300
Read original reasoning
Imai's season K/9 of 11.02 (71 K in 58.0 IP) looks elite on paper, but his last three outings tell a different story: 8K in 6.0 IP (Jul 21), then just 3K in 3.2 IP (Jul 7) and 2K in 1.1 IP (Jul 1). Two of his last three starts were cut short well before he could accumulate strikeouts. His 5.59 ERA signals he gets hit early and gets pulled, and his lone LAA outing resulted in 2.2 IP, 4 ER. To clear 6.5 Ks he likely needs to pitch at least 6 innings cleanly — his recent track record makes that a coin flip at best. Market is already pricing Under at -159, confirming the book agrees outing length is the primary risk.
Tatsuya Imai under 5.5 strikeoutsL
Jul 21, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6100
Read original reasoning
Imai's 10.90 K/9 (63 K in 52.0 IP) looks elite, but his outing length is the fatal flaw. Last three starts: 3 K in 3.2 IP, 2 K in 1.1 IP, 10 K in 6.0 IP. Two of three starts he was pulled before the 4th inning, yielding just 5 combined Ks. His 5.71 BB/9 (33 BB in 52 IP) means pitch count escalates fast. He needs to go 5+ innings to threaten 6 Ks — and his recent track record says that's far from guaranteed. Under 5.5 at -164 reflects fair market assessment; still the correct side.
Tatsuya Imai under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Jul 7, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1000
Read original reasoning
Imai posts 11.17 K/9 on the season but his command is a liability: 30 BB in 48.1 IP (5.59 BB/9) and a 6.14 ERA. Last start: 1.1 IP, 5 BB, 5 ER, 2 Ks — never made it to the 3rd inning. Facing the Nationals, who rank as the top run-scoring offense in the majors at 5.4 R/G, early exit risk is elevated. If he doesn't survive 4 innings, accumulating 5 Ks is nearly impossible regardless of his rate. Under 4.5 at +110 carries genuine value given the blowup pattern.
