Tomoyuki Sugano

Sugano is generating only 5.55 K/9 this season (91 K in 147.2 IP). At that rate, a projected 5-inning outing yields roughly 3.1 strikeouts — below the 3.5 line. Last 3 starts: 5 K, 2 K, 5 K; the median is 5 but his per-inning K rate is low and CHW is a contact-capable lineup (.236 AVG, 4.8 R/G, 8.33 K/9 team pitching indicates opponents don't give away free outs easily). Sugano's 5.36 ERA and 31 HR allowed in 147.2 IP (1.89 HR/9) suggest he gets hit, not dominated. Under at -102 offers near-fair value against a true probability that leans slightly toward the under given his K/9 and likely abbreviated outing.

Sugano's last 3 starts: 2 K, 5 K, 4 K — averaging 3.67 Ks, clearing 3.5 only once. His 2026 K/9 sits at a weak 5.43 across 142.2 IP. CRITICAL context: news intel confirms Quintana — returning from 4+ months on IL after left elbow strain — is the likely actual starter, not Sugano. Quintana pre-injury posted 5.27 ERA across 41.0 IP in 9 starts with a modest K rate; after 4 months of rust and a reduced-pitch-count first outing back, an early hook (4-5 IP ceiling) makes clearing 3.5 Ks in meaningful action a significant ask. Either pitcher scenario — Sugano's declining K rate or Quintana's rust/limited outing — supports the under.

Sugano's 2026 K/9 is just 5.42 (79 K in 131.2 IP) — one of the lowest rates for a starter in this slate. Last 3 starts: 4 K (6 IP), 4 K (4 IP), 2 K (3 IP). He crossed 3.5 K in two of those, but the trend is toward shorter outings: the outs prop market has him at 15.5 outs Under -189, strongly implying fewer than 5.2 innings. At 5.42 K/9, a 3-4 inning start would project just 1.8–2.4 K — well under 3.5. Even a full 5 inning start projects only 3.0 K. NYY lineup strikes out at a moderate rate but Sugano doesn't generate swings-and-misses at a clip to reliably hit 4+. Under 3.5 at -116 represents genuine market edge given his trajectory.