Trea Turner

Turner is .400 AVG (26 PA) career vs Mahle with a 0.863 OPS, and his 2026 numbers against Mahle are even better: 12 PA, 0.917 OPS. He hits for contact, makes consistent hard contact, and Mahle's last three starts produced just 4, 6, and 3 Ks — suggesting hittable stuff. Getting to 2+ total bases (two singles, or any extra-base hit) in a start where the matchup has historically been this productive is a reasonable expectation. The +118 line offers real value — market implies only a 45.9% chance when the BvP data and Turner's season profile (19 HR, 21 SB, .242/.297/.378) suggest a higher floor.

Turner is hitting .105 AVG with 0.413 OPS across 20 career PA vs Peralta — roughly 2 hits in 19 at-bats career. While his 2026 split is 3 PA at 0.666 OPS (small sample, note), the career body of evidence dominates. His season OPS vs RHP is only 0.709 and his L7d OPS is 0.674. Market odds of +142 imply just 41.3% hit probability, making the under a value play against one of the worst career matchups in this game.

Turner is 0-for-5 lifetime vs Scott with a .200 OPS — zero hits in five plate appearances this season against him. Small sample caveat applies (5 PA), but consistent zero-contact result is notable. Turner's season AVG is .239, and his L28d OPS is a suppressed .572. Scott's 10.85 K/9 profile further limits contact. Under at +152 prices in genuine uncertainty but offers value given Turner's specific history vs this arm.